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April 22, 1999 RECOMMENDATION: BUY
Integrated Oncology Pipeline With 2 Candidates In Late-Stage Trials; Trading At Cash Value; Initiating Coverage With A BUY Recommendation
Summary Investment Considerations CTIC is an emerging pharmaceutical company focusing on the discovery, development, and commercialization of drugs useful in treating cancer and the serious side effects of various cancer treatments. The Company is building a deep, vertically integrated pipeline of cancer products targeting major unmet treatment needs, each with independent technology. This strategy enables use of multiple CTIC products by the same clinician and patient, and protects against the failure or ineffectiveness of any one particular technology. CTIC's lead product, Lisofylline ("LSF"), is in trials for two different indications: treating the side effects of high-dose chemotherapy and radiation, and for treatment of patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) and acute lung injury (ALI). CTIC has partnered with Johnson & Johnson ("JNJ") for the development of Lisofylline; CTIC is actively seeking additional corporate partners for other drug candidates. We are initiating coverage of CTIC with a BUY rating, and recommend purchase of CTIC by investors tolerant of the risks associated with small-cap equity investments. I. Integrated Oncology Strategy -- Broad, Late-Stage Product Pipeline
II. Strong Financial Position, Low Burn and Partnering Opportunities -- Trading at Cash Value
III. Milestones - Strong Flow of Near-Term Corporate Events
Company Background We are initiating coverage of CTIC with a BUY recommendation with this abbreviated research report. We plan to publish a full-length report, with a detailed analysis of CTIC, its products and the competitive environment (including a detailed financial model), in the near future. CTIC is an emerging pharmaceutical company focusing on the discovery, development, and commercialization of drugs useful in treating cancer and the serious side effects of cancer treatment. The Company is building a deep, vertically integrated pipeline of cancer products targeting major unmet treatment needs, each with independent technology. CTIC was incorporated in September 1991, and commenced operations in 1992. On March 26, 1997, CTIC completed its IPO, selling 3 million shares at a price of $10.00 per share. CTIC sold 300,000 shares to Johnson & Johnson at the same time, also for $10.00 per share, raising a combined net proceeds of roughly $30 million. A secondary offering of 2.3 million shares at $16.00 per share was completed on October 27, 1997, which resulted in net proceeds of $34.3 million. CTIC's Diversification Strategy -- Enhancing the Risk/Reward Profile; Creating The BUYing Opportunity Over the past 12 months, CTIC has undergone a significant transformation from a single product/single indication/one partner company, into a diversified oncology company with multiple products in advanced clinical trials. Despite significant progress on many fronts, including:
CTIC stock trades at approximately 20% of the value of approximately 12-months ago, and at roughly the value of cash on the balance sheet. 12-Months Ago: The value being attributed to CTIC was based almost entirely on the potential for Lisofylline (LSF) in the BMT indication (preventing infections in patients undergoing BMTs), and on the value attributed to the partnership with JNJ. In early March 1998, CTIC stock traded around $15 per share. On March 25, 1998, CTIC announced that preliminary results of the first Phase III trial of LSF for BMT were not confirmatory. Despite the Company's belief that these results were negatively affected by patient recruitment issues at certain clinical trial sites, and not the clinical and commercial potential of LSF, the stock sold off aggressively following this announcement. Interestingly, JNJ stuck with CTIC and LSF. CTIC Today: We believe management has done an impressive job at diversifying CTIC's development activities, getting new products into clinical trials, strengthening the management team and managing its cash resources. With respect to product diversification and enhancement of shareholder value, CTIC investors have gained:
Management has successfully diversified its product risk across a broad pipeline of oncology drug candidates. The investment risk/reward profile has been enhanced dramatically and the Company has a stream of anticipated announcements this year that could drive significant interest in the stock. Financial Information and Valuation Discussion -- We Believe CTIC'S Products Have Value!We have developed a detailed financial model which will be included in the full-length report. We have also generated a number of valuations, based upon different methodologies, including discounted cash flow, terminal P/E multiples and terminal operating income multiples. Regardless of the valuation methodology, CTIC's share price appears to be significantly undervalued at its current level, particularly for a biotechnology company with multiple products in advanced clinical trials. CTIC's stock is basically trading "at cash value," meaning the market is attributing no value to CTIC's products and technologies. Clearly, JNJ and the National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute have looked at the value of Lisofylline, and believe its value is greater than zero! We believe that to be the case as well. Additionally, we believe the value of Apra, PG-TXL and SC-7 will all become significantly clearer in the near future as clinical results are reported, and CTIC begins to establish corporate partnership arrangements for these other products. We believe current fair value for CTIC to be in the range of $14 to $17 per share. We are initiating coverage of CTIC with a BUY rating, and recommend purchase of CTIC by investors tolerant of the risks associated with small-cap equity investments. Risk Considerations This section of the document is provided to remind potential investors to undertake a prudent level of due diligence prior to making an investment in the securities of CTIC. For a complete description of risks and uncertainties to CTIC's business, see the "Risk Factors" section in CTIC's SEC filings, which can be accessed directly from the SEC Edgar filings at www.SEC.gov on the Internet. Other potential risks include:
Sources for Additional Information The following are website addresses offering related information, and links to other sources of information. www.cticseattle.com CTIC's corporate website www.johnsonandjohnson.com Johnson & Johnson's corporate website www.SmallCapsOnline.com SmallCaps Online's site for company information and research www.FDA.gov US Food and Drug Administration homepage www.sec.gov US Securities and Exchange Commission, with links to EDGAR filings www.cancer.org American Cancer Society
The information in this report has been obtained from sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation by SmallCaps Online LLC for the purchase or sale of any securities. SmallCaps Online LLC has performed investment banking, consulting or other services for and may solicit investment banking, consulting or other business from, any company mentioned in this report. SmallCaps Online LLC or persons associated with SmallCaps Online LLC may at anytime be long or short any of the securities referred to herein and may make purchases or sales thereof while this report is in circulation or posted on the SmallCaps Online LLC website at www.SmallCapsOnline.com. This material or any portion thereof, may not be reproduced without prior permission from SmallCaps Online LLC. SmallCaps Online LLC is not responsible for the contents of this document that is intended for electronic transmission and could be thus subjected to tampering or alteration. Copyright © 1999 by SmallCaps Online LLC. All rights reserved. |