Arthur C. Clarke, the writer and acclaimed futurist, has observed that there is a tendency amongst scientists and social commentators to over-predict the short term future, but to vastly under-estimate change in the longer term. Making predictions about the future is fraught with all manner of problems, although most are down to society’s ever increasing complexity. The more complicated our lives become, the more difficult it is to assess the impact any change will have – however small or insignificant it may seem. In this chapter we will look at many of the changes which experts agree will be a part of the next 20 to 30 years. This is not intended to present an optimistic or pessimistic view – merely to explain what is happening and why such predictions and projections are being made… Pick a ‘wild’ card First, let’s take the bleakest look into the future … John L. Petersen of The Arlington Institute has produced a list of what he describes ‘wild cards’; events and scenarios which could happen at almost any time: The AIDS virus (or similarly deadly disease) mutates and becomes transmittable by air. There’s another ‘Chernobyl’. An asteroid hits the earth. a Civil war erupts between former Soviet States and goes nuclear. Climatic instability takes a turn for the worse. A collapse of the sperm count (depending on whose sperm count collapses, this might a good thing!). The collapse of the United Nations. A collapse of the world's fisheries. A computer/chip/operating system maker blackmails a country (or the world). Computers/robots become capable of thinking like humans. Encryption is invalidated. The end of the nation state. An energy revolution. Terrorism rises beyond the capability of government systems. An extraordinary US West Coast natural disaster. Faster than light travel. Foetal sex selection becomes the norm. The first unambiguous contact with extraterrestrial life – the arrival of ET’s. Fuel cells replace the internal combustion engine. Global electromagnetic communications are disrupted for the foreseeable future. There’s a global financial revolution. A global food shortage. The growth of religious environmentalism. The Gulf or Jet Stream shifts location permanently. Computer hackers blackmail the US Federal Reserve. There’s are health and medical breakthroughs. Human cloning is perfected and a human mutation takes place. The ice cap breaks up – oceans rise one hundred feet. Inner cities arm and revolt. An international financial collapse. A large-scale, lengthy disruption of national electricity supplies. Life expectancy approaches 100. The long term side effects of medications are discovered. The loss of intellectual property rights. A major break in the Alaskan pipeline leads to significant ecological damage. Major chaos in Africa. A major information systems disruption. A major technology or science research accident. A major US military unit mutinies and allies with the militia movement. Mass migrations. Nanotechnology takes off. New age attitudes blossom with the millennium. A nuclear terrorist attack on the United States or Europe. The rise of an American dictator. The rules of society change. Economic and/or environmental "war criminals" are prosecuted. A Second World nation demonstrates the development of nanotech weapons. The development of self-aware machine intelligence. A social breakdown in the US or Europe. A stock market crash. A sweeping medical breakthrough is perfected. Terrorists go biological. A Third World exodus. Time travel is invented. The US economy fails and there’s a collapse of the dollar. Virtual reality and holography move information instead of people. Viruses become immune to all known treatments. A whole generation becomes effectively unable to read, write, think and work and there’s a worldwide epidemic. Not all of the above are necessarily harbingers of doom – so, when reading or hearing about these ‘Doomsday scenarios’, it is worth considering what positive role these potential disruptions and chaos could plays. In Charles Handy’s The Empty Raincoat he writes "Scientists call this sort of time the edge of chaos, the time of turbulence and creativity out of which a new order may jell…it [the universe] has also managed to produce from that disorder an incredible array of living creatures, plants and bacteria, as well as stars and planets. New life is forever springing from the decay and disorder of the old." Society 21st century life will become less predictable and more insecure. There will be more conflict generated by ethnic minorities, some of whom will try to impose their own religious and idealogical beliefs on others; guns and bombs will continue to be used to attract attention to causes. Conflict will intensify within such institutions as government, business, and health care. Politicians and bureaucrats will continue to fight for control of a system which has become woefully inadequate at coping with the speed and complexity of tomorrow. Faceless bureaucrats will continue to exert their awesome power over whichever political party is in office, in order to maintain the status quo – and their jobs – for as long as they can. Integrated information technology will render many functions of government unnecessary. But which politicians are brave enough to dismantle these high cost yet obsolete departments? Through the process of privatisation, government has divested itself of infrastructure services such as telecoms, railways, and gas & electricity supply. However, during the 1980’s and 90’s there was in fact an increase in centralisation and governmental control. As Simon Jenkins points out in his book Accountable to None, Margaret Thatcher’s contempt for the public sector did not lead to a reduction of that sector’s demands on the taxpayer. Where once nationalised industries made demands upon the exchequer, now their place is taken by a raft of quangos and regulators who are electorally unaccountable. The libertarian vision of a society with limited government seems unlikely as governments continue to impose more and more regulations which they justify as ‘protection’ for the consumer. In reality, this behaviour imposes unnecessary costs and limitations on businesses, making them less competitive. Nowhere is this demonstrated better than in the regulatory-ridden United States and Canada. It would seem that governments still believe or act as if their prime function is to regulate and legislate rather than to lead their nations into the 21st century. Whilst on one hand task force groups are set up by governments to remove red tape and bureaucracy, on the other hand, government continues to draft, pass, and enact new statutory regulations. As more money is transferred electronically across international borders, the role of national governments will decline even further. Many of yesterday’s mighty institutions are crumbling. The costs of Western government will continue to rise. Excessive taxes levied by any particular government will result in rapid physical and electronic migration to less onerous regimes. Business has the cash and the clout to dictate its terms. Tomorrow will not be like yesterday. Society will become split into the ‘knows’ and the ‘know-nots’ as well as the ‘haves’ and ‘have-nots’. The Eastern Promise Despite efforts to ban satellite dishes by predominantly anti-Western governments and religions, Western values continue to spread. Many older, more traditional Eastern societies reject what they see as Western immorality as portrayed in films and on TV, where violence is glamourised and sex without emotion is seen as ‘normal’. They may have a point; in the West, families continue to disintegrate, crime and violence is on the increase, the number of children borne out of stable relationships continues to rise, old people are treated with disrespect and Western populations suffer the ravages of cancer, heart disease, diabetes and sexually transmitted diseases. Many of these behavioural traits and afflictions are virtually unheard of in some Far Eastern countries, although the authorities there worry that their incidence is growing. The young want the consumer lifestyle, while the old guard, who have devoted their lives to preserving the traditions of their ancestors, will exert their considerable power to maintain the status quo. Expect a loud and bloody backlash in some countries. In others, expect increased racial and religious conflict as bigoted individuals with low IQ’s sense they are losing out to harder working, better trained ‘foreigners’. The real fights have yet to begin. The US will continue to lose its dominant political, military, and economic position throughout the rest of the world. The Far East is already re-establishing itself as the global economic powerhouse. With 3 billion people in Asia – half of them under 25 – economies are exploding, gleaming cities are rising from former shanty towns at a breathtaking pace. As John Naisbett declares in Megatrends Asia, "The West now needs the East a lot more than the East needs the West." Overseas Chinese are the most successful business people in the world. Their powerful family-style business networks own a significant proportion of the businesses throughout Asia and increasingly in North America. Their ‘connections’ into mainland China are also deep rooted and hugely influential. The perception of Asia as an area of dire poverty, coolies, and rice paddies has its foundations in truth, but within the last 40 years it has become the centre of world trade. How? Everyone is an entrepreneur. With no handouts, they have to be. India’s population is rapidly approaching 1 billion; over 150 million are well educated and middle class. Bangalore is a high-tech region, and is home to advanced computer software and aerospace industries. Lee Kuan Yew, Singapore’s authoritarian political leader, has proved, through his almost dictatorial policies, that there are effective alternatives to Western democracy. Singapore is routinely described as a ‘fine’ city as a direct result of the fact that you will be fined for any anti-social behaviour. It’s illegal to chew gum, to drink alcohol in public, to beg in the streets, to spit, to ‘forget’ to flush a public toilet -the list is long. You are calmly reminded by otherwise chirpy cabin crew on your final approach into Singapore’s Changi international airport, that, if you take or sell illegal drugs, you risk execution. Canings and hangings are also a part of the harsh punishments handed out to criminals. The streets are generally spotless, with little or no graffitti to be seen. It’s not just the taxi drivers in Singapore who quietly complain about these and other strictly enforced regulations governing their country. They call for Western democracy, taking for granted the fact that anyone in Singapore, unlike in London or Washington DC, can walk the streets at just about any time of the day or night without fear. Crime obviously exists, especially amongst the young, but NOTHING like on the scale of democratic nations in the West. You have to see it at first hand to understand the modernisation of Asia, which is being defined as the most important development in the world today. Singapore in particular has created the infrastructure needed to be at the forefront of business, culture, and politics in the next century. Its telecommunications system is the envy of the world. As someone who travels regularly on business, The Shangri La Hotel in Singapore ranks as my favourite hotel in the world. It’s inspiring to realise that all of this has been achieved by a country which is only about the size of the Isle of Wight! When I was last in Singapore, sitting at dinner in a Thai restaurant alongside the harbour quay, I was distracted and fascinated by the conversation on the next table; a group of middle class Singaporean men in their late twenties, were enthusiastically discussing business – in English. Wherever you go in Asia, English is the international business language. Millions of Asians are joining the middle classes and want to own the consumer goods their parents could never afford. And they are prepared to work damned hard for them. This is the norm in a modern society which encourages self-discipline, self-reliance, hard work, frugality, personal responsibility, honesty, innovation, education and looking after your family. The West could learn a great deal from Asia, but Western arrogance usually gets in the way. The control of society, business and religion throughout the world will no longer be the exclusive domain of white, middle class men. White women and Asian and Hispanic men & women will increasingly set our future agendas. Anyone with high quality technical skills would be wise to explore the employment opportunities in Asia. The Environment; burning holes in our fragile blanket Nuclear and fossil power will decline as a source of energy, to be replaced by power generation from sustainable energy sources. The technology exists now to generate vast quantities of energy from the wind, the seas and the Sun. Indeed, before the First World War there were 10,000 windmills operating in Britain alone. Since the Chernobyl nuclear disaster, how many governments regret building these 'artificial suns' which burn holes in the Earth's crust? It's a bit like encouraging everyone to smoke in bed! And, as any fan of The Simpson's will tell you, Montgomery Burns, the nuclear power station owner, is responsible for creating 3 eyed fish! It must be true because I saw them on TV! There has always been enough power from the real sun, the wind and the waves in our oceans, if only we and government didn't accept the view of the fossil fuel and nuclear lobbies that sustainable energy is not 'commercially viable'. It's small wonder that they hold this view when you consider all the grants, tax incentives and regulations in favour of the large non-sustainable power providers. The longer they get away with what they tell us through public relations exercises and TV commercials, the more they can prolong the life of their terminally ill cash cow. Interestingly, they are beginning to re-position themselves as a ‘renewable’ source of energy. Any visitor to the World Sustainable Energy Exhibition in Amsterdam in 1997, would have seen that today's technology is capable of generating vast amounts of 'clean' energy. Holland already produces 16% of its energy requirements via sustainable methods. More governments will follow. However, widespread bickering within the largely fragmented sustainable energy sector which cannot yet compete with the well established, highly organised, cash-rich fossil and nuclear energy producers, is inhibiting its progress. Distributing electricity is highly inefficient and wasteful. It is estimated that there is a loss of up to 20% of the electrical power sent along the copper based power lines, whose pylons criss cross the countryside. Technological developments in superconductivity will greatly reduce this power loss. Could this mean the need for less power stations? Perhaps. China will become the major economic force on earth, followed by the rest of Asia. As Frank Ogden observes in Navigating in Cyberspace, "It took the United States 200 years to produce one million millionaires. China did it in the last three." If China’s economy continues to grow at its present rate, in about 20 years it will overtake the US as the world’s largest economy. It will also become the world’s largest polluter. It appears that its economy is more important than what it does to the planet (in this disrespect, China, as well as other developing countries, shares the same view as the US). We may care about the environment, the problem is, we don’t care enough. When it comes down to jobs, industrial output, food production and leisure, then environmental issues invariably come last. Apparently the average American baby causes twice as much environmental damage as a Swedish baby during its life time. And the populations of developing countries want to emulate the consumptive lifestyles of America! The Population; exploding & exploiting "The earth’s resources cannot feed, clothe, house and educate a population that in the next 25 years will be almost 30% larger than the earth’s present 5.6 billion people." Barry Howard Minkin The British population is getting older. According to the OECD, the number of old people in Europe will double in 50 years. By 2050, up to half of the European population could be over 60. How many will have enough money to survive? David K Foot, author of the Canadian bestseller Boom Bust & Echo, states: "Demographics explain about 2/3rds of everything…the future doesn’t just arrive suddenly one day. There are always early warning signs." Older people tend to become more conservative and cautious. There is a huge number of baby boomers competing for a declining number of senior management jobs. David K. Foot describes the baby boom as a rectangle of people growing older together, but business tends to resemble a triangle – which won’t fit! Most get frustrated or depressed – especially if their company re-structures and flattens the triangle. The rectangle still won’t fit. For many there’s no way up the corporate ladder, so those with the most initiative form their own businesses. He claims it is easy to predict the impact of ‘grey power’ in about 20 years time, as the largest group of the population reaches retirement age. A growing population buys more consumer goods, an ageing one doesn’t. Also, as people grow older, they commit fewer crimes. At least, at the moment they do, but who knows what future desperation will provoke; ramraiding grannies perhaps? Expect the number of poor people to increase – especially amongst the elderly in Britain. This will also occur in every other country. An estimated 1 billion people already live in real poverty. People in their 40’s tend to own properties in the countryside – with more entering that age group, expect a higher demand for rural properties. Those areas with the best hospitals will appeal more to older people who tend to use the health service more than the young. Low grade (by today’s standards) mechanisation attracted millions to city factories at the birth of the Industrial Revolution. Many of those involved in the information revolution are now using technology to leave the cities. The next 50 years will see a migration of affluent ‘knowledge’ workers back to the countryside, where they will want to raise their families and enjoy an improved and more peaceful lifestyle, linked by telecommunications technology – phone, fax, satellite and computer modem – to their widely dispersed clients and colleagues. Will this lead to increased green-belt over development? Fear, confusion, and anxiety will become more widespread among a growing number of individuals, many of whom are worried about their jobs, families and future old age. The middle class will shrink in the West. According to Barry Howard Minkin about 6% of the US population lives a Third World existence of dire poverty. That’s about 15 million people. Britain has the highest pregnancy rate amongst teenagers in Western Europe with about 7,500 pregnancies a year. Approximately half of these are aborted. If the perception of government as a ‘parent’ continues, it will perpetuate the belief that young girls will be cared for if they get pregnant. This represents a good deal to individuals who believe they are not loved by their parent(s) or who are desperately keen to leave home. Get pregnant and have a baby which will love you unconditionally until it too suffers from years of subsistence living, and increased stress from its ‘uncaring’ parent. This pattern is well known to social workers. It does not provide young girls with the escape or status in society they crave. In 1971 there were 570,000 single parents raising a million children. By 1991, 1.3 million single parents were raising 2 million children. Bringing up a family (often alone) on a subsistence income creates tension and deprivation for the child(ren) which causes the pattern to repeat itself. But in the future, no government will be able to afford to pay to support this behaviour. "In the year 2010 the percentage of population over 65 years old will be the highest ever in the United States, Japan, West Germany and the United Kingdom. In Latin America however, only 3% of the population will be over 65." Barry Howard Minkin In the 30 years from 1950 to 1990, the global population more than doubled from 2.5 billion to over 5 billion. It has been forecast to grow from 6 billion today to nearly 9 billion within the next 30 years. In 1950 the population of Africa was half that of Europe, by 2025 it is predicted that Africa will have a population three times larger than Europe. Most of these people will be desperately poor. In underdeveloped countries, 70% of all water is used for agriculture, leading to massive water shortages - to the point where it has been predicted that the lack of water will lead some affected countries to war. Global food and water shortages could lead to widespread war and disease in under-developed countries. Biotechnologists will create hundreds of new plant and animal life forms far more intriguing than existing cross breeds such as the mule (horse and donkey). Optimistic scientists such as Dennis Avery, author of the book Saving the Planet with Pesticides and Plastics, believes that such genetically modified plants will be able to feed these extra billions. Splicing, adding, and removing genes from animals to plants or vice versa, will create new breeds. Breeds which are salt-resistant and drought-tolerant and which can produce high yields without the need for large quantities of water or which are capable of growing abundantly without the need for expensive pesticides and which can thrive in areas of the world currently unable to support them. Already, since 1960, world food production has doubled and productivity from agricultural land has tripled. Growing sufficient food to feed an additional 3-4 billion hungry mouths without destroying the planet will be a further major challenge. Expect an increase in vegetarianism and high quality pre-prepared vegetarian foods. With such massive growth in world population, there isn’t enough grain available to rear enough animals to produce meat. Red meat producers and processors will suffer. Global fish yields are smaller due to over-fishing. This will become more acute. Misery for millions Because of well-meaning foreign aid, populations in third world countries are declining less rapidly than they used to. Human reproduction has always been high in these countries because largely uneducated parents knew many of their children would die or be added to the family workforce. Now that more children live, the result is massive over-population. In India – the world’s second largest population – vast areas of land are devoid of trees, cut down to provide fuel for cooking. Future fuel shortages will result in misery for millions. In many countries, especially in Africa and Asia, up to 50% of the population is now under 15 years of age. These millions are entering the age range when men are statistically most likely to experiment with criminal and violent behaviour and women are reaching their prime child-bearing years. Widespread starvation and wars over food and water are likely consequences. The Roman Catholic Church’s anti-contraception, global recruitment campaign, especially in South America, will certainly not help the situation. As society goes through such profound changes, those with the loudest voices will exert the most pressure to protect their self-interests. As the population ages, seniors will demand increased government spending in health care, housing and financial support. This power, influence and self-interest will create tension, dissent, resentment and anger amongst many young people, who will ultimately lose out. The fights against Crime Terrorism, apparently unprovoked attacks and other random acts of violence against people, countries, and institutions will increase as the perpetrators desperately seek to express their dissatisfaction and frustration at their economic and political impotence. They will fail to see that those they hurt, maim and murder are equally powerless to make the changes or maintain the status quo they demand. In the Dark Ages we built castles and forts to keep us safe. As society became more civilised there was less need for such strong houses. But today there is an increasing number of homes and businesses which operate behind high security walls and iron railings. Anyone visiting a business in an urban area is already faced with security guards and sophisticated surveillance equipment. Only recently we visited a friend who had moved into a new development in a deprived area of London. Getting into the compound in which she lived was like going into a prison. Inside, all the owners’ cars were safe from vandalism and theft. More locks and railings had to be negotiated before we were greeted at a heavily locked front door. Surveillance cameras can be monitored from anywhere, even a different country. To alert the police only requires a ‘phone call – it doesn't matter where you are. Increased crime by the predominantly younger elements of society will continue. Most crime is committed by men aged between 16 and 30. With rising aspirations for material possessions, especially among young males everywhere, expect a corresponding rise in crime and violence in the approaching decades, as many turn to illegitimate means to satisfy their material wants. Demographically, the number of people entering this age group is rising, it is therefore reasonable to expect that more crimes will be committed. In Britain, there are more than 65,000 prisoners in jail and the figure is rising by about 200 inmates every week. The cost to society is at least £2 billion per year or £30,000 per inmate. You could live in a 4-star hotel for less than that. Building and maintaining prisons will be a growth industry for the private sector. According to a report in Success Magazine (April 1996), 85% of inmates at San Quentin prison are illiterate. With more and more young illiterate people being imprisoned, there is perhaps an argument for introducing a policy whereby inmates will not be released until they can read and write to an acceptable standard. Such a policy could radically reduce future crime. Older and better educated criminals will move away from ‘high risk’ activities in favour of the so called ‘victimless’ crimes of deception and fraud. Computer fraud and extortion will become more widespread. Sophisticated criminals, often with military intelligence expertise, will continue to blackmail large corporations with threats of a meltdown of their entire computer systems. The head of a corporation is told that their computer system will ‘fall over’ at a predetermined time. It does. The extortionist arranges for it to be put right within a short time and then calls again to say "Unless you pay $millions into our Swiss account, the next time it happens, we won’t put it right." Governments, corporations and banks are all at risk. No one involved wants to talk about it – but electronic extortion already happens. It is a growth industry. Drugs; sniffing, smoking and swigging Humans crave stimulation. We all want to feel good – often at any cost. Illegal drug use amongst young people is at an all-time high (forgive the pun) and will certainly continue. If it is possible to eat, drink, smoke or inject stimulants, people will do so, either in an attempt to feel better about a sad life, or, if they feel good already, to seek a more intense high. Knowing that the behaviour is illegal also appeals to those who like the idea of being a rebel. In our ‘instant gratification’ society there is a widely held belief that there must be something wrong with you if you don’t feel good all the time. The growing ‘normalisation’ of illegal drugs in society has already led anti-drugs campaigners to move away from advocating a ‘just say no’ approach. They realise it’s ineffective. In the US, disruptive kids of all ages are routinely given sedatives to ‘calm them down’ or supposedly make them more attentive. How long will it be before this becomes the norm in Britain too? Until society, not simply ‘government’, can provide a more appealing alternative to illegal drug use, the ‘problem’ will continue and worsen. Traditionally, young people are the highest illegal drugs users. And young men are the most likely to commit crime. The costs of drug-related crime committed by men are escalating. Sort out the drug problem, and crimes involving burglary and violence would drop significantly. Prostitution amongst female illegal drug users would also drop as well as the spread of HIV amongst users who share needles. In May 1995, a government White Paper, Tackling Drugs Together, estimated the annual cost of just heroin-related crime at £864 million. That’s approximately £338 million more than the government’s annual expenditure to fight the problem. But alcohol-induced crime is far more costly to society. For example, up to 70% of murders are booze-related. But that does not seem to matter – alcohol abuse is socially acceptable and is highly lucrative for the government as a revenue source! There are fewer men and women in their thirties and older who take illegal drugs. There are two reasons; they start their own families and exercise responsibility to their partners and children or putting it simply, they are dead. Instead of using illegal drugs, as people get older they become the largest users of alcohol and legally prescribed drugs, especially anti-depressants and sedatives to overcome stress. There are however, plenty of illegal drug-users in this age bracket - especially ‘fashionable’ and more expensive drugs like cocaine and the intellectual dope-smoking brigade. They presumably don’t feature in government figures as much because a) they are more affluent and don’t get involved in petty crime to support the habit, b) they are far more adept at not getting caught, & c) many of them are probably directly involved in producing the government figures or writing about them in the media! Pharmaceutical companies are currently developing anti-ageing drugs aimed at the growing number of older people. The pharmaceuticals industry is gearing itself up with many products for older people; anti-ageing drugs, drugs to offset the effects of the menopause, hormone replacement therapy, new anti-depressants and treatments for Alzheimer’s and Parkinson’s disease. So called ‘smart’ drugs to combat memory loss for such sufferers will also attract interest from young ambitious individuals if they believe their own mental performance can be improved by taking them. Technology; the answer to every question? Technology will continue to create as many problems as it solves. The discovery of electricity, the invention of the telephone and aeroplanes have changed the world. It’s difficult to imagine society without these inventions. The networking of computers will further transform the world – even though less than 1% of the world’s population is currently ‘wired’. Allowing millions of ordinary folk to communicate globally, almost instantaneously and at low cost, linked computers have already changed the world of business. There are major advantages to those who are, but monumental consequences for those who are not, a part of this new means of communication. Developing countries are building state-of-the-art optical fibre telecommunications networks, many of them leap-frogging the technology currently used in the telephone systems of developed countries. Even those living and working in the remotest parts of the world will have telephone access via Iridium, a series of low orbiting satellites currently under construction. Planning on a weekend walk in the Antarctic? Being permanently on-call, as more and more workers are, the office will be able to contact you. What a lovely thought! Nicholas Negroponte, in Being Digital also makes the interesting observation that one of the key recent changes in technology is that systems which used to use underground cables (e.g. telephones) now use radio & satellite transmission media (e.g. mobile telephones), and vice versa – most noticeably the rapid growth of cable TV distribution compared with airbourne transmission. In the process, the capacities and capabilities of both systems has increased hugely. Think of the average library – quiet, row after row of books – everything you could possibly want – except of course the actual book you are looking for! "I’m sorry, but it’s out until a week on Thursday." says the cheerful librarian. Electronic libraries of the future will not have this problem – hundreds of thousands of people can have the same book in its electronic form at exactly the same time if they want it. Such computer-based libraries will be ‘retrievatories’ rather than ‘depositories’ according to Nicholas Negroponte, Director of the Media Lab at MIT (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) and author of Being Digital. Within 30 years practically all knowledge will be stored and available electronically. This means anything you want or need to know will be available almost instantaneously from any where in the world – at a price, admittedly. Bomb disposal experts could find a CD-Rom by Military Ordinance Design quite useful. It contains descriptions and diagrams of every known explosive, bomb mechanism and fuse. Just the thing if you are facing a ticking device, with a design you have never seen before. Let’s hope terrorists can’t get it. Spend a moment thinking about the impact that the availability of all knowledge could have on your life – both positive and negative. Does your work rely on knowledge – what if your customers could buy it more cheaply without any help from you? Or perhaps you would only be called upon to apply it? Constant information now gushes into our lives. How we sort and filter it will become a major issue for busy professionals. Nine out of 10 scientists who have ever lived are alive today. Each one is producing information and knowledge, much of it constantly distributed to colleagues around the globe. The growth of scientific knowledge is explosive. If you have trouble operating your feature-laden telephone, you are likely to face the next few decades drowning in technology. It may be difficult at first, but get to grips with it and make your life easier either by reading more manuals or paying for training courses. Technology designers may be trying extremely hard to make everything easier to use but there will be too much of it for most people to cope with. Information and technology overload will increase. So expect more complexity not less. While we are submerged in technology, over half the world's population has yet to make or receive a ‘phone call. According to The Economist, an estimated 15 to 20 million new telephone lines will be installed every year for the next five years. China alone will install 97 million telephones lines within the next 10 years. One in 6 new telephone subscriptions worldwide is for a mobile ‘phone. So far over 50 million mobiles have been sold and are most popular with young people – but not as a fashion accessory. Most lead a mobile lifestyle and don’t know how long they will live in their current accommodation, so their number can travel too. Expect the costs of long-distance telephone use to continue to drop as competition hots up amongst the growing number of telecom suppliers. The mobility of telephony and the seemingly never ending increases in the power of computers have already created gigantic opportunities and considerable threats to many workers. Using telephones to connect the world’s computers together will create the single biggest change to life as we know it. The effects of combining computers and telephony has only just begun. As technology continues to shrink in size and increase in power, it becomes possible to do more and more with the technology. Desktop publishing for the masses became possible with the introduction of powerful computers during the mid 1980’s. Additional computer power is creating ‘desktop studios’- broadcast quality audio and video recording and editing is already possible for would-be Steven Spielberg’s everywhere. Computer software which instantly translates spoken and written material from one language to another will allow for rapid and accurate dictation. In Bosnia, American troops tested Falcon (Forward Area Language Converter), a computer which provides instant translations. If they found documents during searches they could scan them into the computer to see whether they had military importance. It won’t be too many years before it will be possible to send an e-mail message and specify which language(s) it will be translated into en route. Is it worth training as a translator? Think for a moment about the implications in other professions. Mobile and home based working will become even more prevalent as words, sounds, pictures and video can be sent and received via computers and ‘phone lines without the need for workers to be there – wherever ‘there’ might be. This could lead to higher demand for larger homes – where spare bedrooms will be converted to home offices. High-tech houses, wired to satisfy the demand for home offices are already being built in Britain. Ownership of home based computers, connected via modems to the Internet, will grow exponentially. Using company intranets (private computer networks) people from different areas of the world work together on complex time-critical projects. While one area of the world goes to sleep, another is beginning its working day. Nine-to-fivers (or more accurately eight-to-seveners these days) cannot compete with this way of working. Millions join the Internet each and every month. Giving a figure here is pointless – it will be out of date instantly. It’s no use having a telephone when no one else has one. Who would you be able to call? But when there are millions of ‘phones, they become invaluable – it’s the same with the Internet. The more people who use it, the more indispensible it becomes. People and computers are already working together as a team, helping us to work more intelligently. And it’s only just begun. The Internet has grown more quickly than any other communications medium. Everything on the Internet is stored on 'servers' - about 7 million of them at the last estimate. When you open a page, you connect to one of these servers. Click onto a hyperlink (a system invented by Tim Berners-Lee, where text (usually underlined and in a different colour) acts as a switch to take you to another piece of information) and you could be re-directed automatically to another server – perhaps on another continent. The Internet is continuing to grow at a phenomenal rate – more US citizens are linked to it than hold library cards. It isn’t hype to say that computers will have a staggering impact on society in the next century. But so many non-users of computers still refuse to be a part of it in much the same way that millions don’t want to be able to read and write…… They don’t see the point. In the 21st century anyone who cannot or will not use a computer will be regarded by most employers as functionally illiterate. (And will become increasingly marginalised as everyday activities such as banking, shopping & even obtaining a ‘newspaper’ move over to computerised systems). Some angrily deride the Internet, especially those with a vested interest in older, less interactive technologies. Janet Street-Porter is an outspoken / TV executive who presented a television series in 1996 on the Techno-nerd. This is part of what she wrote in The Times on 19 March 1996 "Every decade needs some kind of blotting paper to soak up the socially challenged: in the past it has been things like designer drugs, religious cults and colonic irrigation. The Seventies gave us the Moonies, the Eighties aura cleansing and rebirthing. Now the Nineties have spawned the mega cult of all time, the ultimate tool to keep the nerds off the streets - the Internet….. takes a disproportionate amount of time…. it’s more like sitting in a traffic jam waiting for the lights to change and they don’t." But not everyone agrees with her view. The Economist's Going Digital says of the Internet, "How important this revolution will eventually turn out to be is as yet impossible to say. A reasonable guess might put it ahead of the telephone and television but behind the printing press and the motor car.... the world has never seen a technology like this before. " The Information Superhighway. Build it and they will come. Contrary to widespread belief, the Information Superhighway has yet to be built. Some sceptics say it won’t ever exist because of the staggering costs involved. The Internet is merely a dirt track in comparison. Question the knowledge of any one who describes the Internet as the Information Superhighway. It seems fashionable to mock and ridicule the Internet and those who use it. But companies of all sizes have already grasped the realisation that no matter who they are, where they are, how large or small they are – they can compete against the ‘big guys’ on an almost equal footing and at low cost. Low cost is the crucial element. This allows anyone with the necessary knowledge to open up some kind of business. There is far greater usage in the United States than anywhere else on earth, fuelled by the fact that the local telephone calls which are used to access the Internet are free there. Soon many of these manufacturers may no longer need retailers; they will sell directly to their customers. Peter Cochrane, the leading BT telecommunications expert defines the Information Superhighway as "2 clicks and 1 second’. By this he means, any information you could ever want from your computer or interactive TV including text, audio and full motion video should be only 2 clicks of a mouse away and involve a delay of just 1 second. (This assumes the mouse will continue as a means of interacting with a computer. Voice recognition software is now so sophisticated it can perform many of today’s mouse functions). This is a long way from what is currently delivered by an infuriatingly slow Internet. Anyone who has ever spent hours downloading computer software will know exactly what I mean. Forty-two per-cent of American parents claim their kids watch significantly less TV since they bought a home computer. According to Forrester Research 70% of US adults say they sacrifice TV viewing in favour of using their PC. Network television has peaked in importance. As the increasing number of TV stations compete for an increasingly fragmented audience and a dwindling numbers of viewers, each station’s audience will inevitably shrink further. Under intense pressure to deliver high numbers for their advertisers whilst producing programmes which cost less and less, they will increasingly turn towards finding ways to justify programmes which pack as much ‘stimulating’ sex and violence into their programming as possible. It’s already happening – commercial pressures dictate what is shown. TV will continue as an electronic babysitter and company for senior citizens. Young viewers are bored by tired formats and bland programming. Raised on interactive computer games, these viewers want interactivity. If TV doesn’t supply it, they will go elsewhere for it. TV companies know this. In the next 10 years television and desktop computers will merge. More computers will become TVs, more TVs will become computers. And all of them will be linked by the telephone. The Future Today On a visit to BT’s research headquarters at Martlesham near Ipswich I once filmed a demonstration of technologies which have since become available commercially. Wearing a Robocop style helmet fitted with a video camera, microphone, headphones, and a video monitor across one eye, I was linked, via a high quality ISDN telephone line, to an operator who could have been situated thousands of miles away (he was in fact next door at the time). Using this technology I was able to assemble a complex puzzle within 20 seconds as I received verbal instructions and the help of a colour schematic diagram sent from his computer screen via the link and placed in front of my eye. This will allow for highly skilled (and better paid) individuals to achieve higher productivity by instructing less well qualified individuals to carry out complex repair work on location. This will revolutionise remote working in many industries. It is already becoming more commonplace for insurance accident assessors to work in this way. Accredited car body repair shops are equipping themselves with the video and telecommunications equipment to look at detailed shots of damaged vehicles remotely in order to help the assessor make faster and more productive use of his time, cutting down on non-productive travelling time and minimising unnecessary delays for customers. How long will it be before insurance companies favour those body shops which invest in this technology or refuse to do business with those which don’t? The lesson here? – become as well qualified as you can, or you could end up being the one out in the cold and wet holding the camera! Using Computer Assisted Design software (CAD) it’s easy to assemble components electronically. CAD encourages innovation. It allows designers to try out new ideas without committing manufacturers to expensive new processes. It saves money and time. Indeed an amusing example comes to mind. Using 3 dimensional CAD software, my architect friend George Young designed a specially shaped kitchen window which demanded precise measurements so that long, tall double glazed units could be slid into specially cut slots in a hard-wood door frame. The glazier looked at the gaps and declared, based on many decades of experience that the glass would never be made to fit, the clearances were too tight and the angles were too acute. He was certain. To his utter astonishment, both pieces of glass were fitted within 5 minutes! He didn’t realise that the glass had already been fitted successfully on George’s computer screen. Walk around a virtual new home design. Sophisticated 3D computer systems are capable of creating lifelike simulations or ‘virtual reality’. But more complex virtual simulations provide scientists with detailed information on the effects of their experiments. If you want to know how a new design of ship will behave in any combination of wind and sea conditions, you can create and study a detailed computer simulation first. The ship’s design can then be modified and tested again and again until it is ready for construction. A £1million earthquake simulator, financed by the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council and designed by Bristol University is being used to help engineers create earthquake-proof buildings. The aeroplane manufacturer McDonnell Douglas together with Nasa is designing a ‘super-jumbo’ ‘plane on computer which could be capable of carrying 600-800 passengers, travel 8,000 miles at 600mph and fly at 40,000ft, made from a light weight carbon-composite whilst using about 20% less fuel. It’s far better for airline pilots to crash a few computer-generated planes than the real thing. Similarly,doctors can perform and rehearse complex operations using computer simulations before they ever get near an unsuspecting and unconscious living patient. More ominously, when pilots returned from the first bombing mission during the Gulf War they were asked how it felt. Their answer was "Very realistic." Months of virtual reality training on simulators had distanced them from the harsh reality that they were now killing people. The entertainment industry has been quick to adopt this new digital technology to help us escape reality – or at least to create safe visions of terror. Futuristic fiction such as Jurassic Park and Independence Day can be created electronically, but as the technology improves ‘real life’ images can be created from within high powered desktop computers. Computer generated images (CGI’s) of tornados in Twister, volcanos in Dante’s Peak and Volcano are so likelike it is impossible to ‘see the joins’ as actors are seamlessly integrated within the computer-created and enhanced scenes. The list of examples keeps growing. One of the best early examples of this technology features the actor Gary Sinise in Forest Gump, playing a Vietnam veteran who has his legs blown off. We see many different shots of him showing very clearly that he has no legs. He definitely does not have any legs. At the time of the film’s release Sinise said he had been there and still didn’t know how they had done it. His legs grew back for his next movie. Some of the stunts featured in films such as Batman are ‘performed’ by computer generated images. Crowd scenes are faked using computer images, while at least one company offers producers a virtual set, which saves studio space, and hordes of technicians, carpenters and plasterers. This can and may well be used by authoritarian political regimes to ‘doctor’ news coverage events in a way which would make old Soviet government controlled TV look like Thunderbirds by comparison. The sight of a ‘resurrected’ Steve McQueen driving a brand new car in a TV commercial is a disturbing (and to me, an immoral) indicator to future possibilities. By carefully collecting old footage of the actor he was seen to drive the car. Seeing is no longer believing. Imagine what will be possible in 20 years. Most of us can’t. Celebrities and their families might be well advised to seek legal protection against the future use of their images and work. Television has created a virtual reality for millions who opt out of their own real realities by tuning in to daily soap operas. For some, the characters are real. By simulating real experiences, it won’t be too many years before large numbers of people withdraw into their own simulated worlds devoid of genuine interaction and intimacy. The ‘birth’ of millions of ‘cyberpets’ is just the beginning. Progress. Machines have already been produced which can see, touch, smell, hear and speak. How many machines do you talk to each day? Shouting abuse at them is not quite what I mean. We routinely talk to answering machines and voice mail (more accurately described as ‘voice jail’). Many such systems are capable of understanding you in simple ways. As described elsewhere in this book, I regularly talk to my computer which understands the thousands of words I use. Expect voice recognition systems to become even more sophisticated and ever more pervasive in society. Health; coughing up Health care is the largest industry in the world. It is entering a new era. The days of ‘trial and error’ medicine (as defined by Richard Worzel) are ending. In your old age, your bank will be more likely to keep you alive than any doctor or government. Look after yourself and you may live to a ripe old age. Future rises in the cost of health care means that the prudent will invest in the prevention of ill-health. The older you get, the more health care costs. The average lifespan of affluent people will almost certainly continue to rise. As the number of old people is likely to double in the next 20-30 years, and consume between a third and one half of all health care spending, it doesn’t take a genius to work out that the costs of heath care will rocket as baby boomers reach old age and spend their savings (if they have any) by clinging on to their life on earth rather than passing their cash on to their kids. Residential care facilities and jobs for carers will increase in the decades to come. Advances in medicine and nutrition mean that we can live far longer, on average, than our ancestors. Old populations demand massive amounts of medical attention. Europe has the oldest population in the world. Don’t expect the government to keep you alive. Government cash will be in short supply which means people will end up going without the treatment that many believe is their right. It has been estimated that by 2031 there will be ten times more centenarians as today - 40,000 people. It won’t be too many years before senior citizens will outnumber those in employment. How are those in work going to finance the pensions of those in retirement? Quite simply, they won’t be able to. The existing concept of the State pension can’t work for much longer. Government funded healthcare provision will ultimately collapse under the sheer weight of the demands from our greying population. Already we are seeing a growing number of easy to use yet sophisticated self-help and self-diagnosis tests coming on to the market. The trend towards seizing back control of our lives from the medical profession has already begun. Patients are becoming more demanding and have come to realise that doctors are not Gods. Doctor’s do not always know as much as they make out. There will be an even greater shift away from conventional pharmaceutically based medicine as more people take responsibility for their own wellness; holistic and Eastern medicine will become increasingly accepted in the West and will continue to be resisted by the medical establishment. Only since the 1930’s have drugs been able to kill bacteria. But how long will it be before such germs adapt and mutate so that our drugs are no longer as effective? The fight against disease is constantly shifting as germs and viruses evolve to resist chemical treatments. Some infections don’t respond to treatment any more. Doctors find it easier and quicker to write out a prescription than to take a more in-depth approach – there is a growing fear that antibiotics are too easily prescribed. Antibiotics are a 20th century discovery, but if we continue using antibiotics as a first resort in clearing up a wide variety of common ailments, existing germs and viruses will mutate and develop into strains which are immune to existing treatments. One in six prescriptions are for an antibiotic. If you regularly take or are prescribed antibiotics, pray they work when you REALLY need them in the future. They are already becoming less effective, as viruses become increasingly resistant to them. As the population continues to move around the planet on business and for pleasure, disease spreads more quickly. TB and malaria are becoming more common place. Medical experts fear global epidemics of new air-borne diseases. What’s in your Genes? The Human Genome Project is a gigantic worldwide project to map the entire human genetic code and find disease-causing genes. In simple terms, particular defective or mutated genes increase the possibility of certain diseases. By identifying those genes most likely to induce infectious diseases or hereditary diseases such as Diabetes, Csytic Fibrosis, Muscular Dysrophy, Huntington’s, Alzheimer’s or colon and breast cancer, researchers believe such genes can be ‘switched off’, corrected, or replaced with healthy genes. Discovery and cures for some of the 4,000 genetically linked diseases are likely within the next 2 decades. Great news for anyone at risks from life threatening diseases – and monumental profits for the pharmaceutical companies which are buying up related patents and those companies involved in this recombinant DNA technology. SmithKline Beecham allegedly paid $125 million for a stake in Human Genome Sciences and the Institute of Genomic Research. The commercial value of exploitation rights and patents of its 35,000 databank of genes could be awesome. One of its competitors, Merck claims the SKB sponsored project restricts genetic research and has set up GenBank an American genetic database which it has placed in the public domain. Drugs companies need new products as more and more of their past money spinners reach the end of their patents and cheaper, generic versions of those drugs come onto the market. DNA based drugs represent their future. A desperate need for new products has led to an acceleration in genetic research. Too fast for some researchers such as the US molecular biologist John Fagan, who fears the consequences of commercialising poorly understood genetic discoveries too rapidly. No one knows how genetic manipulations will behave when passed from one generation to the next. Concerns over unintended and unpredictable consequences are being voiced but ignored, together with a whole host of other ethical questions. Should an unborn baby with a genetic defect be aborted? Should insurance companies be given access to your genetic details as a condition of cover? Money has a louder voice, but as Herb Cohen says, it doesn’t always tell the truth. Within the next 40 years, the technology will almost certainly exist to remove defective genes from human fetuses and to add desirable ones. Try to work out the ethics of that one! What happens when scientists identify the gene linked to longevity? Or how about human cloning where identical human copies can be produced? Wouldn’t you be interested to see an identical copy of yourself ? Scientists would – but is there a young Adolph Hitler type out there somewhere, just waiting for an opportunity to create a master race?. A computerised health care system – at last The days of doctors scribbling illegible prescriptions are numbered. There is still far too much duplication and inefficiency in the health care industry. As costs come under ever closer scrutiny, widespread computerisation will take place. Smart-card technology will allow you to carry a card which includes all of your medical history and medication details. Imagine a time when a computer database becomes available listing every known disease, from every corner of the globe; detailed symptoms for each, together with the most up- to-date medical research and every known pharmaceutical, herbal and holistic treatment. Will it be confined to the medical professions? Probably not. Ultimately they will be unable to keep it to themselves. This information won’t replace the need for doctors, but more and more people will take an active interest in their own health. Firstly, by looking after themselves better (see chapter 10 and secondly, by learning to ask doctors detailed questions about their illnesses. Today there is a huge amount of data and knowledge available on the Internet to anyone who wishes to carry out the research. There are electronic bulletin boards and user groups for just about every type of complaint – often administered by the sufferers rather than the medical profession. Doctors admit that more of their patients are taking their findings to the surgery to share with their physicians, many of whom would never be able to keep up with all of the, seemingly weekly, developments in. Last year a friend with a baby girl discovered that the baby had stopped growing. By searching medical databases on the Internet, we discovered a new genetically-engineered drug that had just been made available in the United States to treat this condition. This availability of medical knowledge will profoundly change the relationship between patients and doctors. Less invasive surgery is also being developed using computerised ultrasonics, allowing doctors to ‘see inside’ the patient without having to gouge huge holes in their bodies and then sew them back up again. This equipment also dramatically speeds up recovery, helped no doubt by ‘living bandages’ – genetically-engineered human skin cells developed at the University of Akron, Ohio. See the technology chapter for more details of advances in medicine predicted for the 21st century. How would you like to be operated on by a robot? No thank you? Created by Integrated Surgical Systems in Sacramento, California, Robodoc is a robot used to perform hip replacements more accurately than the best human surgeons. Medical technology is becoming so sophisticated that specialist surgeons will soon be able to use telemedicine to perform operations by remote control. The patient, perhaps a soldier on a far off battlefield, and the surgeon could be thousands of miles apart. The surgeon manipulates robotic scalpels, assisted by less qualified people in the make-shift operating room. Money; how would you like to pay? In many Western countries, most notably the United States and Canada, the obscene national debts will create widespread financial hardship amongst their populations in the decades to come. Canadians already ‘joke’ that their current tax regime means they don’t start earning anything for themselves until June each year! More countries will seek to raise taxes based on consumption rather than income as politicians accept that they may become unelectable if they suggest income tax increases. This will raise the prices of many products and services. Although as Charles Handy points out in The Empty Raincoat, this is a much more efficient method of raising tax revenue. If tax on income is removed, you remove the temptation to evade payment and with it, the need for labour-intensive policing of the system. If tax is levied on consumption instead, this is much easier to police and also acts as an incentive to save, which in turn makes more cash available for investment in industry and commerce. Provided that a fair system of subsidies is implemented to avoid forcing more people into poverty, this system is not without merit. We will see a return to a more simple form of life for those who do not need to worry about money. They will spend less, and save and invest more. But those without savings will eventually realise they will have nothing to live on in their old age and will be more inclined to take a gamble on their future by investing in high risk, potentially higher return investments. If such investments fail to deliver those high returns, life for these people will become desperate. At present we are free to decide whether or not we make adequate provision for our old age. Many take this freedom and then expect the State to bear the responsibility for them. This is likely to change. The Labour government may make pension provision compulsory, but where would this compulsion end? Expect more compulsory regulations as society turns away from a dependency culture, where the state takes responsibility for people regardless of how they have exercised their choice, to a culture of individual responsibility where only the desperately poor will be helped. The introduction of digital money looks set to transform the world of business. Electronic cash will enable money to be transferred rapidly, easily and inexpensively between individuals and organisations. Once this is achieved, the world will never be the same again. Anyone, anywhere in the world will be able to sell anything to anyone else and know they will be paid for it. This means that customised products and services can be sold without the need for costly intermediaries such as retailers, distributors, agents or wholesalers. These traditional forms of trade will not disappear but the ability to transfer money will totally change existing business systems. Why buy a car from a car dealership when you can import a car to your exact specification directly from the manufacturer? Expect increased tension between intermediaries and manufacturers. Retailers exert enormous pressure on manufacturers, dictating what they will sell and under what conditions. Up to 20% of the price you pay for some retail goods pays for the costs of putting it on the shelf. But limited retail shelf-space and an ever growing number of high quality, customiseable products means that, ultimately, manufacturers will need to find other ways to reach their potential customers. Electronic money and improved communications technology will help them achieve this. Banks are routinely 'getting their fingers burnt'. Massive defaulted bank loans to under-developed countries have resulted in a highly cautious approach to lending. But the banks are still getting it all wrong. A bank is less likely to agree a loan to an organisation or individual without fixed assets such as property. To a bank, your ideas are worth less than what you own. If they can't see, touch or measure something it has a lower value. But banks have lost fortunes accepting commercial property as collateral. Intellectual capital is growing in value, while physical bricks and mortar are no longer ‘as safe as houses’. Education; reading the trends More mature students will attend university and colleges – not necessarily to work towards academic degrees but to improve their knowledge in the workplace or if they do not work, to improve their minds. Consequently universities and colleges will have to change radically or have their positions usurped by commercial training organisations using the latest computer and satellite technology. Up to date information and knowledge will become more available than at any time in history. Parents, dissatisfied with standards of state education, will provide a huge boost to the educational electronic publishing industry. Continuous learning and re-training will become the norm. Those ‘too busy’ to learn new skills will become obsolete. Already there is a trend towards more women going to university and college than men. Better qualified females will therefore enter the workforce in the next few decades. This will represent bad news for men. Work and Business; more for less Some of the largest and best known businesses will disappear in the next 20 years. Downsizing will continue and intensify (even though many downsized companies now realise they went too far) in many industries as staff endure the increased competitive pressures on business to remove all unnecessary costs. ‘More for less’ will drive many more businesses. There will be more attention to workers’ effectiveness. This will lead to a shift towards more part-time, contract and freelance work. Just because you work for a large organisation, it is no longer a guarantee of success or a long career with that firm. Full-time employment will decline for a growing proportion of the population. This in turn will produce job insecurity at an unprecedented level for those affected. Many jobs will be performed overseas by better qualified, highly motivated, less costly individuals. Government-sponsored job creation schemes will continue to fail. Governments will be too slow to persuade workers in ‘old’ industries to move into newer ‘growth’ industries. More businesses are being financed by large financial institutions rather than individual investors. This will radically change the behaviour of business executives because individual investors tend to seek long-term performance, while financial institutions are more interested in short term returns. There will be more mergers, acquisitions, alliances and partnerships. This will lead to major consolidation and probable redundancy for many of those involved in duplicated functions that can be performed cheaper elsewhere. With existing over-capacity in many manufacturing industries, coupled with increased automation and advances in robotics technology, redundancies in the manufacturing sector will increase worldwide. Customers will demand ever faster response times. Those individuals and organisations who are unable to match such demands will lose business. This will lead to increased stress and pressure for the individual. Many European and North American businesses will lose their global dominance, Far Eastern competitors with lower costs will lead the way in their home Asian markets. Western companies burdened with mandatory healthcare and pension provision will become increasingly un-competitive. Businesses everywhere are wrestling with the problems of globalisation and integration. How do you develop a profitable business across national boundaries, different time zones and cultures, whilst successfully persuading diverse people to work together seamlessly for an equally diverse client base? That’s the business challenge for the next century. It is also the business opportunity for consultants and advisers. More and more employees are being empowered to act without managerial supervision. More people will be forced into taking the initiative to create or invent work for themselves. This involves education, self-confidence and the acquisition of self-marketing skills. Anyone without formal qualifications will risk unemployment. Those who rely on their muscle power for a wage will be under an increasing threat of extinction. The situation will not improve in the foreseeable future. Unskilled people will be replaced by sophisticated and constantly improving technology. "Knowledge work’ will be where most new jobs will be found. However, those industries which rely on highly trained individuals are already finding it difficult to recruit enough high calibre people –especially in the IT industry. This problem will become more acute. The work is out there if you are prepared to train yourself well enough! Companies that are perceived to behave unethically will experience even more difficulty in attracting the best people. As the predominantly white, male bosses in the work place retire or are let go, women and members of ethnic minorities will become far more influential within the workplace. More middle managers and supervisors will disappear from the payrolls of companies. Businesses will rely more on workers’ ideas. Organisations will continue to strip away wastage – people and processes. However, once they have become lean, many won’t then be able to cope with future growth. Individuals and organisations will gradually move away from selling their time, instead they will be paid for the results they achieve for their employers, customers and clients. This will have a fundamental impact on consultancies, lawyers, accountants and other professions. Older people (especially divorced women) will choose or feel the need to continue working to enhance inadequate pensions, making it even more difficult for young people to find work at the beginning of their careers. Young people already feel isolated. Many already feel defeated by the system – their numbers will increase. This will fuel the crisis for children leaving care. The rest will stay single and live at home with their parents for longer. This means a lower demand for all the goods and appliances which constitute a new home. The detail of retail According to The Economist, retailing represents the single largest industry employing from 7-12% of the work force. Retailers exert tremendous power over their suppliers and manufacturers. Retail buyers rule with rods of iron, relationships are not always amicable, but they need each other. Everyone does whatever they can to preserve their profit margins. Intermediaries add layers of costs which will be removed by many manufacturers and retailers. There will be a move towards larger stores with fewer staff. Small retailers are collapsing every week, many high streets all over the country are losing these small independent traders - often caught between the economies of scale enjoyed by the national retailers and excessive business charges by local authorities. Competition between businesses is intensifying and changing. The restaurant trade is massive. There was a time when the only competition for restaurants was other restaurants – but not any more. Supermarkets have brought out high quality cuisine products at a fraction of the price of restaurant meals. So rather than spending to go out, millions have the option of dining in style at home. With increased consumer competition and lower prices, retailers will not be prepared to pay for high quality, knowledgeable sales people unless they differentiate themselves as specialists. Julian Richer’s, Richer Sounds hi-fi chain is an excellent example of a company which encourages and rewards its knowledgeable workforce. But in many other areas of retailing, a bad situation will get worse – sales staff will become even less knowledgeable and more unhelpful, further pushing consumers, who are drowning in a sea of confusion and conflicting information and advice, to find alternative ways to buy products and services. In Future Shop by Jim Snider and Terra Ziporyn, the authors predict a growth in ICIC’s - Independent Consumer-Information Companies. These commercial organisations will be a bit like a highly computerised and automated version of Which? Magazine. They will change the most fundamental elements of trade – supply and demand. ICIC’s will not sell products (which affect ‘supply’ in the marketplace) but provide bias-free information on the widest variety of products and services; cars, consumer electronics, restaurants, films, financial products - the list goes on. This will radically affect ‘demand’ for particular products, leading to even more competition between product and service suppliers. Snider and Ziporyn believe that, in a high information society, the provision of product information will remove confusion for the consumer and save them precious time. Supplying this trusted information and knowledge will provide huge potential profits for entrepreneurs. The technology to deliver such information already exists. In 1995, I worked with a German client which demonstrated such technology by Magic Link (a Californian software company) at Telecom 95, a World Technology Fair, held in Geneva. Personal digital assistants (PDA’s) equipped with sophisticated software ‘Infobots’, or knowledge agents, can be individually programmed by the user to search for information relating to pre-defined topics on the Internet, and to make decisions on our behalf, including scheduling appointments and other mundane tasks. We are moving from an era of mass production towards ‘mass-customisation’ where products can be manufactured to a high standard to the exact specifications demanded by the consumer, within a short time frame. Manufacturers in a wide variety of fields who are unwilling to comply with such requests will be squeezed out of their markets. Expect this from vehicle and clothing manufacturers (Levi Strauss already offer tailor-made jeans from selected retailers, linked directly by computer to the fabric cutting machines at their factories). This is great news for consumers who no longer have to make do with the best fit they can find. Many other products will be manufactured in this way – made to order, providing every link in the business chain with cost savings – some of which may be passed on to the consumers! Consumer loyalty towards well-established brand names will continue to decline as consumers question why they pay more for the name when other products seem to be just as good. Coca-Cola, the world’s biggest brand has suffered very badly in the UK from the introduction of cheaper colas manufactured by the Canadian Cotts Corporation and distributed by Sainsbury’s, Virgin and others. Why pay more for Kellogg’s cornflakes when it appears that a supermarket’s own brand is just the same? (Why we drink and eat such products in the first place is another issue altogether). As businesses downsize and convert information into space saving electronic form, there will be a massive surplus of commercial property. Today, up to 2 floors of many 15 storey office blocks are used to store paperwork. The increasing trend towards home working will further dampen the value of office space everywhere. In London, the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors claims up to 15% of second hand office space is no longer required. There are an estimated 10 million square feet of office space in central London alone which the Institute predicts will never be used again. The National Audit Office has estimated that about 8.4 million square feet is no longer required by the State. Is it really a good idea for any business owner or manager to sign a long lease? From the 1450’s, helped by Gutenberg’s printing press, power and knowledge was taken away from the Church by government. Because of this, Europe was transformed in less than 50 years. In the future, global businesses using communications technology will take power away from governments. It will almost certainly take a lot less than 50 years. Few governments like it, but they can do nothing to control or censor the flow of information. These are just a few examples of how the way we live and work is changing so radically. No book could include every future development, but this chapter has attempted to give you some idea of the massive and at times, frantic activities which have yet to trickle down into our day to day lives. The future has already been invented for many of us – it’s just that we haven’t seen it yet. Individual predictions and trends outlined in this chapter may turn out to be true or false. But one thing is for sure – the 21st century will be very different from the 20th century and everyone will have to deal with massive changes. Some will be beneficial, whilst others may pose serious threats to your future well being, health and wealth. But what, if anything, can you do about it? The next chapter explains why there is so much change in the world, why change will increase and accelerate in the next few decades, and – crucially – what can be done about it to minimise the possible consequences to you, your job and your future. İRoy Sheppard 1999 To Roy Sheppard's Home Page |
