|
For
Tuesday, June 18th, 2002
Monday's DJIA
9,687.42 +213.20/+2.3%
NASDAQ 1,553.29
+48.55/+3.23%
S&P 500 1,036.17
+28.90/ +2.9%)
|
New
on the Website!!! You can NOW view Long Term P&F charts
for stocks, in
addition to
Monthly
Chartbook type charts. You can also NOW set up your own portfolio
list of stocks, to quickly view as a group! Check it all out
at
<chartcraft.com>!
INVESTED
POSITION FOR OUR MUTUAL FUNDS.
Yesterday,
we increased our Invested position for Bonds to 40% with the
suggestion of Fidelity's Investment Grade Bond fund. Equities
stayed at 20%,
Foreign 100% and Gold 100%. We added Duke Energy (DUK) to our
Income and
Appreciation portfolio, took profits on our short in the Russell
2000 and
added a new short in PetSmart (PETM). The Gold fund hit the stop
yesterday
and we would take profits today.
TECHNICAL
MARKET DATA for Monday
Daily NYSE
Bullish % : 55.69% | Other Bullish %'s | Opt Stks 44.66%
ASE 45.83%
| Nasdaq/OTC 39.95% | NASDAQ 100 18% | DJIA 36.66%
10wk MA's
NYSE 43.40%+Opt Stks 34.20%+| ASE 44.27% | NASDAQ 32.58% 100
16%+
30wk MA's
NYSE 55.41% | Opt Stks 45.97% | ASE 48.72% | NASDAQ 42.65% 100
20%
The NYSE 10-week M.A. reversed up and moved to Bear Correction
status and
the Option 10-Week reversed up to Bull Alert.
THE MARKETS got off to a good
start in an option expiration week, not
unusual. NASDAQ volume was down 13% from Friday and NYSE 20%
and that is not
a good sign.
The DOW
INDUSTRIALS were strong all day following some positive comments
by
McDonalds and wound up with a gain of 213.21 points to 9,687.42.
The 50 X
150 moved to a low Pole buy, but is below the down trend line
and the 200
day Moving Average. We continue to have a downside target of
8850-9350 and
it dropped below the top of that range on Friday morning before
rallying. It
is down 3.3% for the year to date. . .
The TRANSPORTS
were up 56.79 to 2,729.99 It is also on a Low Pole Buy and
one box below a Buy Signal. It has been showing a series of lower
tops and
bottoms since its recent peak.
DOW UTILITIES
were up 3.61. It is on a Sell signal below the down trend
line, but did hold at an important support level.
The S&P
500 was up 28.90 to 1,036.17. It moved back to a Buy Signal from
a
low pole, but is still below the down trend line and the 200-Day
Moving
Average. Unlike other averages, it did NOT exceed its' January
peak at 1175.
It is now down 9.7% for the year.
The NASDAQ
COMPOSITE was up 48.55 to 1,553.29 and is on a Sell signal way
below the down trend line and also below its 200 Day Moving Average.
It is
down 20.4% for the year. OTHER AVERAGES were up yesterday with
new short
term buys for the S&P 100, MidCap, NYSE, Value Line, NDX,
Morgan Stanley
High Tech, SOX and Biotech indices.
INDICATORS
Indicators
continue to be moving down from Overbought levels and only a
couple of them are Oversold. We continue to be in the Unfavorable
5/1 to
10/31 season.
Breadth
was strong across the board NYSE A/D line is below 10 days ago
for
15 days and is on a P&F sell signal . NASDAQ is below for
37 days. ASE is
also for 15 days. .
Daily High
Low ratios shows the NYSE at O 46%, ASE at O 30% and NASDAQ O22%.
Yesterday, the NYSE had 85 new highs and 28 lows. NASDAQ was
70/47 and ASE
was 21/25.
The TIR
COMPOSITE was up to 29.3% and continues on a Buy Moving up from
Oversold levels.
INDIVIDUAL
STOCK ACTION
In stock
action for Monday, not very much in the way of buy signals in
indvidual stocks despite the big move in the Averages. Bio stocks
did well
and Cephalon gave a P&F Buy signal.
DAILY
BROAD SECTOR SUMMARY
In our BROAD
INDUSTRY GROUP BULLISH %'s, there were four down moves with
RESTAURANTS moving from X 74% and Bull Confirmed to O 68% and
Bear Alert.
Remember, Bear Alert means a trading move to the downside or
worse. This
lowered the tentative BULLISH % SUM to -6.5 from 5.0 last week
and it
continues on a Sell signal and in a down column. Movement to
+3.0 will be a
positive. We have noted for some time the double negative in
the Restaurant
area of lots of Buying Climaxes and lots of insider selling.
PORTFOLIO
UPDATE
Yesterday,
we took profits in our Russell 2000 short sale, but added a new
short in PetSmart. and also had a new long position in Duke Energy
for our
Income and Appreciation portfolio.
We also
raised our invested position in Bond funds to 40% with the
suggestion of the Fidelity Investment Grade Bond funds.
At the close,
the Fidelity Gold fund went below our suggested stop so we
would take profits there. That leaves us zero for Gold funds,
but we still
have some Gold stocks left after taking profits on three of them
a week ago.
This is still an area that we like Long Term and are waiting
for this
correction to end to raise our position again.
OTHER
AREAS
Crude Oil
was up 15 cents to $26.08, while London Gold was down $4.30 to
$317.80. both of these continue on Buy Signals.
NARROW GROUP
TREND ACTION
Among the
190+ Investors Daily INDUSTRY GROUP TREND CHARTS action was
negative last week with 2 groups up on the charts compared to
142 that were
down. There were 11 new Sell signals: Auto Manufacturers Domestic,
Chemicals
Fertilizer, Chemicals Specialty, Commercial Services Staffing,
Commercial
Services Misc, Leisure-Photo Equipment, Leisure Services, Leisure
Toys-Games, Machinery Farm, Machinery Materials Handling, Medical
Drug
Diversified, The INDUSTRY GROUP BULLISH % moved down to 61.4%
and continues
in Bear Alert Status. This is a lagging rather than a leading
or coincident
indicator.
NOTEWORTHLY
Yesterday,
NESTLE SA made $2.4 billion deal to acquire DREYERS ICE CREAM
and
that stock jumped $24.50 to $67.29. Our congratulations go out
to Charles
LaLoggia's SUPERSTOCK INVESTOR newsletter (800-450-0551) who
had predicted
exactly this for some time. This newsletter specializes in finding
companies
that they think may be taken over and they have been very successful
in this
endeavor. In April they said about Dreyers "In July, Nestle
bought some
Dreyers shares from GE,, following issuance of new shares. Nestle
owns 24%
of this takeover candidate in consolidating industry. In late
December
Nestle bought the 50% of Haagen-Dazs Ice Cream that it did not
own from
General Mills, suggesting that DRYR could ultimately get a takeover
bid from
Nestle". We often quote this service in our newsletter.
We hold Ionics in
our long term portfolio which is also on their takeover candidate
list. In
the same letter they had this comment about Ionics. "Water
Treatment company
with low debt in takeover-lively industry is getting close to
multi year
breakout near $33-34. ION recently did some financial "housecleaning"
of the
sort that often precedes a takeover. In January ION received
over $12/share
in cash from sale of the bottled water business."
We have
often said that getting 130 odd newsletters is like having our
own
Research Department that is far superior to that of any brokers.
These
services do say BUY and more importantly they do say selling.
They do not do
any Investment Banking or have any other conflicts of interest.
|