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May 20, 1999
RECOMMENDATION: BUY
ARIAD Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
(NASDAQ: ARIA)
A Unique Collection of Undervalued
Technology and Product Assets; ARGENT Program Could Lead to New Corporate
Partnerships; Initiating Coverage with a BUY Recommendation
Market Data:
Exchange Symbol.....................ARIA (NASDAQ)
Price of Common Stock (05/19/99)............$1.44
30-Day Average Trading Volume.............101,000
Shares Outstanding.....................22 million
52-Week High/Low......................$4.50/$1.25
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ARIA Corporate Information:
Address......................26 Landsdowne Street
.............................Cambridge, MA 02139
Telephone..........................(617) 494-0400
Chairman & CEO.............Harvey J. Berger, M.D.
EVP & CFO.........................Jay R. LaMarche
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Summary Investment Considerations
ARIAD Pharmaceuticals has successfully
created an integrated program of drug discovery focused on the identification
of novel, orally delivered pharmaceuticals based on signal transduction
(internal cell communication) technology. ARIAs "gene-to-drug"
platform encompasses its ability to identify and validate new molecular
targets (functional genomics), to rationally design drugs that interact
with these targets and then to optimize and evaluate the pharmaceutical
properties of these drugs (medicinal chemistry and pharmacology). ARIAs
product programs are focused in two areas: 1) the development of small-molecule
drugs that block signal transduction pathways that play a critical role
in diseases such as osteoporosis, allergy/asthma and immune-related diseases,
and 2) the development of orally administered drugs that control the production
of therapeutic proteins such as EPO, Human Growth Hormone, Alpha Interferon
or Beta Interferon.
Like many small-cap biotechnology companies,
ARIA stock is currently trading near its 52-week low. Despite a multi-million
dollar joint venture with Hoechst Marion Roussel (HMR), called the Hoechst-ARIAD
Genomics Center, and innovative gene therapy technology called ARGENT,
the stock has sold-off as investors have become impatient with small-cap
healthcare technology companies in general. We believe ARIA has a unique
collection of technology and product assets, and represents a unique investment
opportunity at this time. We are initiating coverage with a BUY rating,
and recommend purchase of ARIA shares for those investors tolerant of
the risks associated with micro-cap and small-cap equity investments.
I. Broad, Proprietary Platform Technology;
First Clinical Trial Underway
- ARIA has a broad intellectual property portfolio based
on certain signal transduction pathways that it has leveraged into its
partnership with HMR and into the development of a lead compound to
treat osteoporosis.
- The advancement of ARIAs ARGENT system, or the
ability to turn "on and off" inserted genes by means of small
molecule drugs, has already resulted in the successful completion of
a Phase I clinical trial to treat Graft-versus-Host Disease (GvHD) in
patients undergoing allogeneic bone marrow transplants. We believe ARGENT
will be the driving force behind partnerships signed during 1999.
- In animal studies, ARGENT has demonstrated efficacy
in successfully regulating a number of different protein genes, the
most notable of which is erythropoietin (EPO). Due to these successes
and following discussions with management, we believe ARIA will sign
multiple partnerships over the next 12 months with biotechnology and
pharmaceutical companies interested in specific therapeutic proteins.
II. Strong Corporate Partner in Hoechst
Marion Roussel (HMR)
- Since 1995, HMR and ARIA have been collaborating to
develop compounds to treat osteoporosis. ARIA has received several milestone
payments from HMR from its osteoporosis program and we would expect
to hear more from these programs in the coming years.
- In 1997, HMR and ARIA formed the Hoechst-ARIAD Genomics
Center, a five-year, 50/50 joint venture to discover novel molecular
targets and therapeutic proteins. Hoechst has already invested approximately
$40 million in the joint venture and is committed to investing another
$50 million over the next 3 years. ARIA has rights to 50% of the validated
targets and proteins that emerge from the JV.
III. Coming Milestones BUYing
Opportunity
- Clinical: During 1999, we expect ARIA to commence
a Phase II trial for its GvHD product and to hear of advancements in
its osteoporosis and other product programs.
- Partnerships: We are expecting new partnerships
during 1999 that should not only strengthen ARIAs financial and
strategic position but could also lead to significant stock appreciation.
Risk Considerations
This section of the document is provided
to remind potential investors to undertake a prudent level of due diligence
prior to making an investment in the securities of ARIAD Pharmaceuticals,
Inc. For a complete description of risks and uncertainties to ARIAs
business, see the "Risk Factors" section in ARIAs SEC
filings, which can be accessed directly from the SEC Edgar filings at
www.SEC.gov on the Internet.
Other potential risks include:
- Market risk: Like many small-cap and micro-cap
stocks, ARIA shares are trading near their 52-week low. Investors should
consider technical risks common to many small-cap or micro-cap stock
investments, including liquidity levels, small float, risk of dilution,
dependence upon key personnel, dependence upon single products or technologies,
and the strength of competitors that may be larger, better capitalized
and hold dominant market positions.
- Business risk: ARIA has limited experience in
the commercialization of pharmaceutical products. Many of its products
are in the early stages of development. Additionally, ARIA intends to
license rights to some of its products to other companies. There can
be no assurance that these licensing agreements will be completed, or
that the market will accept any products under development.
- Regulatory risk: There is no guarantee that
future ARIA products will be approved by the US FDA or international
regulatory bodies for marketing in the US or abroad.
- Competitive risk: The biotechnology industry
is extremely competitive, in particular because of its large market
potential. Many companies are developing products for the therapeutic
indications targeted by ARIA.
Sources for Additional Information
The following are website addresses offering
related information, and links to other sources of information.
www.ariad.com ARIADs
corporate website
www.hoechst.com Hoecsht
Marion Roussel corporate website
www.SmallCapsOnline.com SmallCaps Onlines site for company information and research
www.FDA.gov US
Food and Drug Administration homepage
www.sec.gov US
Securities and Exchange Commission, with links to EDGAR filings
The information in this report has been obtained from sources that
we believe to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.
Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation
by SmallCaps Online LLC for the purchase or sale of any securities.
SmallCaps Online LLC has performed investment banking, consulting
or other services for or may solicit investment banking, consulting or
other business from, AMBI Inc. SmallCaps Online LLC or persons
associated with SmallCaps Online LLC may at anytime be long or
short any of the securities referred to herein and may make purchases
or sales thereof while this report is in circulation or posted on the
SmallCaps Online LLC website at www.SmallCapsOnline.com.
This material, or any portion thereof, may not be reproduced without prior
permission from SmallCaps Online LLC. SmallCaps Online LLC
is not responsible for the contents of this document that is intended
for electronic transmission and could be thus subjected to tampering or
alteration. Copyright © 1999 by SmallCaps Online LLC. All
rights reserved.
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