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Access Pharmaceuticals, Inc. |
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Confidential |
Revenue Assumptions |
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(000 except per share amounts) |
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Historical |
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Current |
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Projections |
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Fiscal year end December 31st |
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1996 |
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1997 |
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1998 |
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1999 |
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2000 |
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2001 |
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2002 |
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2003 |
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Amlexanox |
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Aphthous ulcers/canker sores: Licensing revenue (000s) |
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0 |
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500 |
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150 |
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300 |
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500 |
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350 |
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Aphthous ulcers/canker sores: Royalty revenue (000s) |
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0 |
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35 |
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1,870 |
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2,500 |
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4,100 |
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5,800 |
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Oral Lichen Planus: Licensing revenue (000s) |
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0 |
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0 |
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750 |
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600 |
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250 |
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700 |
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Oral Lichen Planus: Royalty revenue (000s) |
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0 |
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0 |
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0 |
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350 |
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2,070 |
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4,190 |
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Mucositis: Licensing revenue (000s) |
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0 |
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0 |
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0 |
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0 |
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0 |
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0 |
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Mucositis: Royalty revenue (000s) |
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0 |
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0 |
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0 |
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1,000 |
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3,000 |
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5,000 |
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Total Amlexanox licensing revenue |
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250 |
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500 |
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900 |
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900 |
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750 |
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1,050 |
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Total Amlexanox royalty revenue |
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0 |
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35 |
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1,870 |
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3,850 |
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9,170 |
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14,990 |
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Total Amlexanox licensing and royalty revenue |
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250 |
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535 |
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2,770 |
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4,750 |
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9,920 |
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16,040 |
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Implied growth (yr/yr) |
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417.8% |
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71.5% |
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108.8% |
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61.7% |
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Polymer-Platinate AP5070 |
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Licensing revenue (000s) |
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0 |
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0 |
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5,000 |
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5,000 |
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5,000 |
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5,000 |
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Royalty revenue (000s) |
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0 |
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0 |
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0 |
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0 |
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4,500 |
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10,000 |
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Total Polymer-Platinate AP5070 licensing and royalty
revenue |
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0 |
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0 |
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5,000 |
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5,000 |
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9,500 |
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15,000 |
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Implied growth (yr/yr) |
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0.0% |
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90.0% |
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57.9% |
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ResiDerm |
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ResiDerm A (Zinc/Clindamycin): Licensing revenue (000s) |
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0 |
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1,500 |
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3,000 |
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3,000 |
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0 |
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0 |
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ResiDerm A: Royalty revenue (000s) |
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0 |
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0 |
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0 |
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340 |
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1,320 |
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2,860 |
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ResiDerm D (Zinc/Vitamin D): Licensing revenue (000s) |
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0 |
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0 |
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0 |
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2,000 |
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4,000 |
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4,000 |
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ResiDerm D: Royalty revenue (000s) |
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0 |
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0 |
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0 |
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0 |
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500 |
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1,500 |
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ResiDerm R (Zinc/Retinoic Acid): Licensing revenue
(000s) |
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0 |
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0 |
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0 |
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1,000 |
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2,000 |
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2,000 |
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ResiDerm R: Royalty revenue (000s) |
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0 |
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0 |
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0 |
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0 |
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250 |
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750 |
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Total ResiDerm licensing revenue |
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0 |
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1,500 |
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3,000 |
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6,000 |
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6,000 |
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6,000 |
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Total ResiDerm royalty revenue |
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0 |
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0 |
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0 |
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340 |
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2,070 |
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5,110 |
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Total ResiDerm licensing and royalty revenue |
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0 |
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1,500 |
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3,000 |
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6,340 |
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8,070 |
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11,110 |
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Implied growth (yr/yr) |
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100.0% |
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111.3% |
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27.3% |
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37.7% |
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Summary |
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Revenues from licensing activities |
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0 |
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325 |
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250 |
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2,000 |
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8,900 |
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11,900 |
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11,750 |
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12,050 |
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Revenues from royalties |
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0 |
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0 |
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0 |
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35 |
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1,870 |
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4,190 |
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15,740 |
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30,100 |
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Revenues from option income |
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167 |
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110 |
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0 |
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0 |
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0 |
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0 |
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0 |
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0 |
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Total Revenues |
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167 |
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435 |
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250 |
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2,035 |
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10,770 |
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16,090 |
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27,490 |
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42,150 |
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Access Pharmaceuticals, Inc. |
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Confidential |
Summary Income Statement |
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($ 000 except per share amounts) |
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Historical |
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Current |
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Projections |
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Fiscal year end December 31st |
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1996 |
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1997 |
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1998 |
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1999 |
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2000 |
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2001 |
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2002 |
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2003 |
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Revenues |
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Royalty revenues |
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$0 |
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$0 |
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$0 |
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$35 |
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$1,870 |
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$4,190 |
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$15,740 |
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$30,100 |
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Licensing revenues |
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$0 |
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$325 |
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$250 |
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$2,000 |
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$8,900 |
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$11,900 |
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$11,750 |
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$12,050 |
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Option income |
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$167 |
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$110 |
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$0 |
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$0 |
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$0 |
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$0 |
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$0 |
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$0 |
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Total Revenues |
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$167 |
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$435 |
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$250 |
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$2,035 |
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$10,770 |
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$16,090 |
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$27,490 |
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$42,150 |
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Implied growth (yr/yr) |
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160.5% |
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-42.5% |
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714.0% |
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429.2% |
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49.4% |
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70.9% |
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53.3% |
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Cost of goods sold (1) |
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$0 |
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$0 |
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$0 |
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$0 |
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$0 |
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$0 |
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$0 |
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$0 |
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Gross profit |
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$167 |
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$435 |
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$250 |
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$2,035 |
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$10,770 |
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$16,090 |
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$27,490 |
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$42,150 |
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Less R&D expense |
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1,405 |
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2,433 |
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2,000 |
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3,053 |
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4,847 |
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5,632 |
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9,072 |
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13,910 |
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Less G&A expense |
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1,938 |
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1,784 |
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1,350 |
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1,425 |
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1,616 |
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2,414 |
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2,749 |
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4,215 |
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Less depreciation and amortization |
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123 |
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162 |
|
210 |
|
300 |
|
300 |
|
300 |
|
400 |
|
500 |
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Less write-off of excess purchase price |
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8,314 |
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580 |
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0 |
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0 |
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0 |
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0 |
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0 |
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0 |
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Operating income |
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($11,613) |
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($4,524) |
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($3,310) |
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($2,742) |
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$4,008 |
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$7,745 |
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$15,269 |
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$23,526 |
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Implied growth (yr/yr) |
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-61.0% |
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-26.8% |
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-17.2% |
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-246.2% |
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93.2% |
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97.2% |
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54.1% |
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Plus non-operating income (net) |
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|
151 |
|
83 |
|
25 |
|
100 |
|
300 |
|
300 |
|
300 |
|
300 |
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Less taxes |
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0 |
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0 |
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0 |
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0 |
|
646 |
|
2,816 |
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5,449 |
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8,339 |
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Net income |
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($11,462) |
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($4,441) |
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($3,285) |
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($2,642) |
|
$3,662 |
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$5,229 |
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$10,120 |
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$15,487 |
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Implied growth (yr/yr) |
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-61.3% |
|
-26.0% |
|
-19.6% |
|
-238.6% |
|
42.8% |
|
93.5% |
|
53.0% |
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Weighted average shares outstanding (2) |
|
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|
1,492 |
|
1,584 |
|
2,700 |
|
5,400 |
|
6,900 |
|
6,900 |
|
6,900 |
|
6,900 |
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Earnings per share (EPS) |
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(7.68) |
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(2.80) |
|
(1.22) |
|
(0.49) |
|
0.53 |
|
0.76 |
|
1.47 |
|
2.24 |
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Notes: |
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1. All revenues expected to be licensing fees and royalties;
no manufacturing contemplated. |
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2. Adjusted for 1-for-20 reverse stock split effected
June 18, 1998. |
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AXCS Margins: |
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Gross margin |
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100% |
|
100% |
|
100% |
|
100% |
|
100% |
|
100% |
|
100% |
|
100% |
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R&D as a % of revenues |
|
|
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841% |
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559% |
|
800% |
|
150% |
|
45% |
|
35% |
|
33% |
|
33% |
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G&A as a % of revenues |
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1160% |
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410% |
|
540% |
|
70% |
|
15% |
|
15% |
|
10% |
|
10% |
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Operating margin |
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-6954% |
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-1040% |
|
-1324% |
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-135% |
|
37% |
|
48% |
|
56% |
|
56% |
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Pre-tax margin |
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-6863% |
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-1021% |
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-1314% |
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-140% |
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34% |
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46% |
|
54% |
|
55% |
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Net margin |
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-6863% |
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-1021% |
|
-1314% |
|
-130% |
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34% |
|
33% |
|
37% |
|
37% |
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Tax rate |
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0% |
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0% |
|
0% |
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0% |
|
15% |
|
35% |
|
35% |
|
35% |
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Access Pharmaceuticals, Inc. |
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Confidential |
Valuation Analyses |
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($ 000s except per share amounts) |
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Past |
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Current |
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Projections |
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1997 |
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1998 |
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1999 |
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2000 |
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2001 |
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2002 |
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2003 |
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Revenues |
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435 |
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250 |
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2,035 |
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10,770 |
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16,090 |
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27,490 |
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42,150 |
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EBITDA |
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(4,362) |
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(3,100) |
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(2,442) |
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4,308 |
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8,045 |
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15,669 |
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24,026 |
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Operating Income |
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(4,524) |
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(3,310) |
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(2,742) |
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4,008 |
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7,745 |
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15,269 |
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23,526 |
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Net Income |
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(4,441) |
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(3,285) |
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(2,642) |
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3,662 |
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5,229 |
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10,120 |
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15,487 |
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Earnings Per Share |
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(2.80) |
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(1.22) |
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(0.49) |
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0.53 |
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0.76 |
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1.47 |
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2.24 |
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Shares outstanding |
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1,584 |
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2,700 |
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5,400 |
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6,900 |
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6,900 |
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6,900 |
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6,900 |
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Discounted Cash Flow |
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(EBITDA as proxy for cash flow) |
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Discount Rate |
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30% |
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32% |
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34% |
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36% |
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38% |
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15.00 |
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78,854 |
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73,243 |
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68,109 |
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63,405 |
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59,089 |
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17.00 |
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87,196 |
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80,972 |
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75,278 |
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70,062 |
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65,277 |
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Terminal P/E multiple: |
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19.00 |
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95,538 |
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88,701 |
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82,447 |
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76,719 |
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71,466 |
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21.00 |
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103,880 |
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96,430 |
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89,616 |
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83,376 |
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77,655 |
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23.00 |
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112,222 |
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104,159 |
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96,785 |
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90,034 |
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83,843 |
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Average of boxed area= |
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82,622 |
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Per share average of shaded area= |
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$15.30 |
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Based upon 5 million shares outstanding |
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Terminal P/E Multiple Method |
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Discount Rate |
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30% |
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32% |
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34% |
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36% |
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38% |
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15.00 |
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62,565 |
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57,966 |
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53,768 |
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49,929 |
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46,414 |
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17.00 |
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70,907 |
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65,695 |
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60,937 |
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56,586 |
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52,603 |
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Terminal P/E multiple: |
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19.00 |
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79,249 |
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73,424 |
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68,106 |
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63,243 |
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58,791 |
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21.00 |
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87,591 |
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81,153 |
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75,275 |
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69,900 |
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64,980 |
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23.00 |
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95,933 |
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88,882 |
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82,444 |
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76,558 |
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71,168 |
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Average of shaded area= |
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68,258 |
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Per share average of shaded area= |
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$12.64 |
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Based upon 5 million shares outstanding |
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Terminal Operating Income Multiple Method |
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Discount Rate |
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30% |
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32% |
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34% |
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36% |
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38% |
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8.00 |
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50,689 |
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46,963 |
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43,562 |
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40,451 |
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37,604 |
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10.00 |
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63,361 |
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58,704 |
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54,452 |
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50,564 |
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47,005 |
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Terminal operating income multiple: |
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12.00 |
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76,033 |
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70,445 |
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65,343 |
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60,677 |
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56,406 |
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14.00 |
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88,705 |
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82,186 |
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76,233 |
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70,790 |
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65,807 |
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16.00 |
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101,378 |
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93,927 |
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87,123 |
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80,903 |
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75,208 |
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Average of shaded area= |
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65,488 |
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Per share average of shaded area= |
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$12.13 |
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Based upon 5 million shares outstanding |
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