SectorAnalysis.com
  Todd L Morris
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Comprehensive Stock Analysis by Sectors and Industry Groups
Economic summary for Thursday, July 18th, 2002. We continue to use 60 month (five year) Resistance and Support values. The U.S. economic recovery is now broadly decelerating with a double dip recession at 50% probability. Strengthening Euro relative to the dollar continues to deflate U.S. assets although price erosion of non liquid assets is lagging precipitous drop in equity markets. Sectors that have suffered the biggest declines during the recent recession continue to be weak or have fallen further; particularly those that had participated in the speculative "Bubbling 90's". These groups remain in a "shadow" or ghost recession. Sectors and groups that are clear of recession, or were never in one, should see decelerating growth going forward for the next 6-18 months. Higher risk is prevalent now with Dow and S&P equities relative to NASDAQ, with all still trending lower. Sector strength is an essential consideration when going long in this market. Resistance and Support values are subject to change, but often take many months or up to a few years to be re-established depending on price volatility and economic fundamentals.

Paper and Forest Products

B2B Paper and Forest Products

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 All Sectors

Symbol Company Name 5 YR Resistance 5 YR Support  6 Mo. Trend  Bias

KMB
KIMBERLY CLARK CORP

59.00 (t)
52.00 b

Buy Pullback
 

 IP
INTERNATIONAL PAPER CO

43.80 (t) 

27.00 b

Sell Run-up
 

SEO
STORA ENSO OYJ

14.50 t
 8.00 (b)

Sel
 

UPM
UPM KYMMENE CORP ADS

38.00 (t)
25.00 b

 Trail Stops
 

WLL
WILLAMETTE INDUSTRIES

 55.50 t
30.00 (b)

Aquired
 

AVY
AVERY DENNISON CORP

69.70 tt
 37.00 (b)

Sell
 

SSCC
SMURFIT-STONE CONTAINER

25.25 tttt

 12.50 (b)

Sell Run-up
 

ABY
ABITIBI-CONSOLIDATED INC

19.00 t

 7.50 (b)

 Trail Stops
 

 MWV
MEADWESTVACO CORP

 35.25 (t)

28.50 b

Buy
 

  BNL
BUNZL PLC ADS

 26.00 t

12.08 (b)

Sell
 

GP
GEORGIA PACIFIC

 50.50 (t)

 18.50 b

BuyRetracement
 

WY
WEYERHAUSER

66.00 (t)

 37.00 bbb

Trail Stops
 

BOW
BOWWATER

  58.00 (t)

 46.00 b

Trail Stops
 

 PCL
PLUM CREEK TIMBER

  31.00 (t)

 27.80 b

Sell
 

Legend

ACCUMULATE

OVERSOLD
BUY PULL BACKS

 RETRACEMENT
BUY - PRICED BELOW SUPPORT

UNDER VALUED
SELL - SET STOPS: PROTECT PROFITS / MINIMIZE LOSSES

OVER BOUGHT
SELL - TRAIL STOPS TO MAXIMIZE PROFITS: EXIT POSITION

OVER VALUED
TOPPING - t *> TIGHTEN TRAILING STOPS: TAKE PROFITS

FULLY VALUED
BOTTOMING - b *> NOT YET UNDERVALUED: CAUTION

TARGET ENTRY

The "bias" is an earning season sensitive rating.

* > b bottoming process often involves the retesting of support levels and can lead to prices that are under valued and below support levels. Support can also be "taken out" starting a new bottoming process. In a recession support is more likely to be taken out than resistance; especially in a stock within a weak group.
* > t topping process often involves the retesting of resistance levels and can lead to prices that are over valued and above resistance levels. Resistance can also be "taken out" starting a new topping process. In a growing economy resistance is more likely to be taken out than support; especially in a stock within a strong group.
y

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