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AMBI Inc. |
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Confidential |
Summary Income Statement |
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($ 000 except per share amounts) |
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Historical |
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Projections |
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Fiscal year end June 30th |
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1997 |
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1998 |
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1999 |
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2000 |
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2001 |
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2002 |
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2003 |
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Revenues |
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$11,280 |
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$20,758 |
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$28,000 |
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$37,800 |
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$51,030 |
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$68,891 |
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$93,002 |
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Implied growth (yr/yr) |
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84.0% |
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34.9% |
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35.0% |
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35.0% |
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35.0% |
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35.0% |
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Cost of goods sold |
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$4,998 |
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$2,956 |
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$5,880 |
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$11,340 |
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$15,309 |
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$20,667 |
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$27,901 |
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Gross profit |
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$6,282 |
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$17,802 |
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$22,120 |
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$26,460 |
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$35,721 |
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$48,223 |
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$65,102 |
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Less SG&A expense |
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17,312 |
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12,100 |
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12,600 |
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13,230 |
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14,033 |
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15,156 |
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17,205 |
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Less R&D expense |
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4,833 |
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2,660 |
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3,080 |
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3,780 |
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5,103 |
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6,889 |
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9,300 |
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Less other operating expenses |
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0 |
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0 |
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500 |
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600 |
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700 |
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700 |
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700 |
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EBITDA |
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(15,863) |
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3,042 |
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5,940 |
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8,850 |
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15,885 |
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25,478 |
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37,896 |
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Less depreciation and amortization |
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772 |
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1,575 |
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1,850 |
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2,100 |
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2,100 |
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2,100 |
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2,100 |
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Operating income |
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($16,635) |
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$1,467 |
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$4,090 |
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$6,750 |
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$13,785 |
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$23,378 |
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$35,796 |
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Implied growth (yr/yr) |
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-108.8% |
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178.8% |
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65.0% |
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104.2% |
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69.6% |
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53.1% |
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Plus non-operating income (net) |
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291 |
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(299) |
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420 |
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567 |
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765 |
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1,033 |
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1,395 |
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Less taxes |
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152 |
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116 |
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1,579 |
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2,561 |
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5,093 |
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8,544 |
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13,017 |
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Net income |
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($16,496) |
1 |
$1,052 |
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$2,932 |
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$4,756 |
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$9,458 |
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$15,868 |
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$24,174 |
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Implied growth (yr/yr) |
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-106.4% |
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178.7% |
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62.2% |
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98.9% |
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67.8% |
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52.3% |
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Weighted average shares outstanding |
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19,454 |
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20,163 |
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27,500 |
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28,500 |
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30,000 |
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31,500 |
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33,000 |
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Earnings per share (EPS) |
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(0.85) |
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(0.04) |
2 |
0.11 |
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0.17 |
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0.32 |
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0.50 |
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0.73 |
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Notes: (1) Excludes $9.7 million gain
on sale of Aplin & Barrett in 2Q97. (2) 1998 EPS is negative,
despite positive net income, due to accounting treatment for amortization
of convertible preferred stock discount and dividend. |
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AMBI Margins: |
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Gross margin |
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55.7% |
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85.8% |
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79.0% |
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70.0% |
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70.0% |
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70.0% |
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70.0% |
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SG&A as a % of revenues |
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153.5% |
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58.3% |
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45.0% |
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35.0% |
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27.5% |
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22.0% |
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18.5% |
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R&D as a % of revenues |
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42.8% |
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12.8% |
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11.0% |
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10.0% |
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10.0% |
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10.0% |
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10.0% |
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Other operating expenses as a % of revenues |
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NM |
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NM |
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1.8% |
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1.6% |
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1.4% |
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1.0% |
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0.8% |
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Operating margin |
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-147.5% |
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7.1% |
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14.6% |
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17.9% |
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27.0% |
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33.9% |
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38.5% |
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Pre-tax margin |
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-150.1% |
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8.5% |
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13.1% |
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16.4% |
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25.5% |
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32.4% |
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37.0% |
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Net margin |
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-146.2% |
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5.1% |
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10.5% |
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12.6% |
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18.5% |
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23.0% |
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26.0% |
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Tax rate (conservative fully-taxed estimate) |
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35.0% |
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35.0% |
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35.0% |
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35.0% |
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35.0% |
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COMPARABLE COMPANY
INFORMATION |
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Trading data: |
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NATR |
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RXSD |
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TWLB |
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WNI |
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Valuation analysis: |
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NATR |
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RXSD |
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TWLB |
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WNI |
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Last price (10.12.98) |
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$14.25 |
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$17.44 |
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$21.75 |
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$5.38 |
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P/E Ratio (LTM) |
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12.5 |
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24.9 |
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29.2 |
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15.9 |
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52-week high |
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$28.63 |
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$39.00 |
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$47.87 |
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$17.50 |
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P/E High (Last 5 years) |
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41.1 |
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65.4 |
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NA |
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NA |
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52-week low |
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$13.63 |
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$14.75 |
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$17.37 |
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$3.81 |
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P/E Low (Last 5 years) |
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15.9 |
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16.3 |
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NA |
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NA |
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Shares outstanding (mil) |
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18.4 |
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72.4 |
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31.6 |
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24.7 |
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Price to Sales |
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0.9 |
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3.2 |
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3.1 |
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0.9 |
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Market capitalization (mil) |
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$262.2 |
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$1,262.7 |
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$687.3 |
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$132.8 |
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Margin analysis: |
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Consensus earnings estimates: |
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Gross margin (LTM) |
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81.9% |
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58.8% |
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47.1% |
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35.2% |
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FY 1998 EPS Estimate |
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$1.25 |
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$0.95 |
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$1.31 |
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$0.79 |
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Operating margin (LTM) |
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11.5% |
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19.4% |
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21.1% |
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4.9% |
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FY 1999 EPS Estimate |
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$1.48 |
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$1.28 |
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$1.64 |
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$1.08 |
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Pre-tax margin (LTM) |
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12.2% |
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20.3% |
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17.2% |
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2.9% |
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P/E to 1998 Est. |
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11.4 |
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18.4 |
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16.6 |
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6.8 |
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Net income margin (LTM) |
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7.4% |
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13.1% |
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10.6% |
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5.6% |
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P/E to 1999 Est. |
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9.6 |
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13.6 |
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13.3 |
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5.0 |
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Effective tax rate (LTM) |
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39.2% |
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35.8% |
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38.5% |
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36.7% |
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NATR: Nature's Sunshine Products;
RXSD: Rexall Sundown, Inc.; TWLB: Twinlab Corporate; WNI: Weider Nutritional
International |
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AMBI Inc. |
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Confidential |
Valuation Analyses |
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($ 000s except per share amounts) |
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Historical |
Projections |
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1997 |
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1998 |
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1999 |
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2000 |
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2001 |
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2002 |
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2003 |
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Revenues |
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11,280 |
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20,758 |
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28,000 |
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37,800 |
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51,030 |
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68,891 |
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93,002 |
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Operating Income |
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(16,635) |
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1,467 |
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4,090 |
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6,750 |
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13,785 |
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23,378 |
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35,796 |
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Net Income |
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(16,496) |
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1,052 |
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2,932 |
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4,756 |
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9,458 |
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15,868 |
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24,174 |
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Earnings Per Share |
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(0.85) |
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(0.04) |
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0.11 |
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0.17 |
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0.32 |
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0.50 |
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0.73 |
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Shares outstanding |
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19,454 |
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20,163 |
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27,500 |
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28,500 |
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30,000 |
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31,500 |
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33,000 |
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P/E Multiple Method (per share) |
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Comparable average 1998 P/E applied to annualized
AMBI 1999: |
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$1.82 |
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Comparable average 1999 P/E applied to annualized
AMBI 2000: |
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$2.50 |
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Revenue Multiple Method (per share) |
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Based on 20.2 million shares outstanding |
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1999 |
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2000 |
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2001 |
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2002 |
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2003 |
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2.00 |
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2.78 |
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3.75 |
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5.06 |
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6.83 |
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9.23 |
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2.25 |
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3.12 |
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4.22 |
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5.69 |
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7.69 |
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10.38 |
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Revenue multiple: |
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2.50 |
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3.47 |
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4.69 |
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6.33 |
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8.54 |
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11.53 |
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2.75 |
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3.82 |
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5.16 |
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6.96 |
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9.40 |
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12.68 |
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3.00 |
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4.17 |
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5.62 |
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7.59 |
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10.25 |
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13.84 |
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Average (per share) of shaded area= |
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$6.52 |
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Terminal P/E Multiple Method |
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Discount Rate |
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16% |
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18% |
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20% |
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22% |
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24% |
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12.00 |
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138,115 |
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126,801 |
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116,580 |
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107,333 |
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98,952 |
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13.00 |
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149,625 |
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137,367 |
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126,295 |
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116,277 |
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107,198 |
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Terminal P/E multiple: |
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14.00 |
|
161,135 |
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147,934 |
|
136,010 |
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125,222 |
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115,444 |
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15.00 |
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172,644 |
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158,501 |
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145,725 |
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134,166 |
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123,690 |
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16.00 |
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184,154 |
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169,068 |
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155,441 |
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143,110 |
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131,936 |
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Average of boxed area= |
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136,389 |
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Per share average of boxed area= |
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$6.76 |
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Terminal Operating Income Multiple Method |
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Discount Rate |
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16% |
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18% |
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20% |
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22% |
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24% |
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6.00 |
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102,257 |
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93,880 |
|
86,313 |
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79,467 |
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73,262 |
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7.00 |
|
119,300 |
|
109,527 |
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100,699 |
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92,711 |
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85,472 |
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Terminal operating |
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8.00 |
|
136,343 |
|
125,174 |
|
115,085 |
|
105,956 |
|
97,682 |
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income multiple: |
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9.00 |
|
153,386 |
|
140,820 |
|
129,470 |
|
119,200 |
|
109,892 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10.00 |
|
170,429 |
|
156,467 |
|
143,856 |
|
132,445 |
|
122,103 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Average of boxed area= |
|
115,405 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Per share average of boxed area= |
|
$5.72 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|