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October 14, 1998 RECOMMENDATION: BUY AMBI Inc. (NASDAQ: AMBI) "AHP and Cultor Food Science Deals: Transforming Corporate Events"
SUMMARY INVESTMENT CONSIDERATIONS AMBI is executing an innovative and profitable growth strategy: developing and commercializing nutritional products for cardiovascular, diabetic and other medical conditions. Its products are proprietary, and are put through pharmaceutical-like clinical trials to demonstrate efficacy and safety. The Company has recently announced two "transforming" strategic alliances with American Home Products ("AHP") and Cultor Food Science, Inc. ("Cultor") that validate AMBIs strategy, provide the Company with national retail and ingredient distribution for its products, strengthen the balance sheet, and position the Company for future growth. We believe AMBIs strategic and financial turnaround is completed and the company is poised for growth: In FY98, AMBI earned $1.1 million in net income and more than $3.0 million in EBITDA, and management expects to net over $1.0 million for 1Q99 (ended September 30, 1998).
COMPANY OVERVIEW AMBI is executing an innovative and profitable growth strategy: developing and commercializing proprietary nutritional products for cardiovascular, diabetic and other medical conditions. Three of AMBIs key differentiating competitive advantages are as follows: First, its products are proprietary, protected by composition-of-matter, use, formulation patents and/or other know-how. This should afford AMBI pricing power and higher, pharmaceutical-like margins, a characteristic that distinguishes AMBI from other nutritional products companies that have suffered from recent price competition. Second, AMBI puts its products through pharmaceutical-type clinical trials, and publishes or presents the results. This should have the effect of positively influencing healthcare professionals, whose "buy-in" and/or endorsement should expand usage, encourage mainstream acceptance of the benefits of nutritional products, and ultimately drive overall demand. Third, AMBI has a first-class management team with broad pharmaceutical and financial experience, and a track record of being able to execute. Not all micro-cap companies with $20 million in revenues have the vision, the strategy, or the management team to see its way to being a $100 million revenue company. We believe AMBI does.
AMBI PRODUCTS AND PRODUCT PIPELINE AMBI is developing proprietary nutritional products, with a particular emphasis in the areas of cardiovascular disease and diabetes. With more than 60 million Americans suffering from some form of cardiovascular disease, and 16 million afflicted with "adult-onset" diabetes, AMBI is focused on a large and growing market. Borrowing from lessons learned in the pharmaceutical industry, AMBI puts its products through well-designed clinical trials to demonstrate both safety and efficacy, and publishes or presents these results in well-known journals and at industry conferences. Cardia® Salt Alternative, AMBIs first retail product, is a salt alternative for people desiring to reduce their intake of sodium, a leading contributor to hypertension. AMBI has conducted two double-blind, placebo-controlled trials on Cardia Salt Alternative, the results of which were presented at the American Society for Hypertension Meeting and the American College of Cardiology meeting. Cardia Salt Alternative was shown to be effective in reducing blood pressure in hypertensive patients. The results of an open-labeled trial conducted at Mt. Sinai Hospital were presented at this years American Society of Hypertension meeting. Chromax® Chromium Picolinate, is marketed as an ingredient product, which leading retailers such as Rexall Sundown, Twinlab and General Nutrition Companies sell under private label. AMBI has conducted two double-blind, placebo controlled studies on Chromax, that have demonstrated its ability to improve the control of glucose in pre-diabetic and diabetic patients. One study was presented at the American Diabetes Association Meeting, and another was published in Diabetes, the official journal of the American Diabetes Association. Nota bene: AMBI recently announced results of a study published in the June 1998 issue of Current Therapeutic Research that showed that individuals who took chromium picolinate demonstrated a statistically significant reduction in body fat. AMBI holds US patents on the use of chromium picolinate in increasing lean body mass and reducing body fat, controlling blood glucose, and in reducing cholesterol. Selenomax® Selenium and Zinmax® Zinc are additional ingredient products sold in bulk to customers that incorporate these minerals into dietary supplements and food products. Hearts Content™ is a paper and on-line guide, currently under development, for people interested in maintaining good cardiovascular health. Each issue will contain in-depth information on products and services, special interest stories and references and other resources on related topics. Hearts Content is free, and can be ordered by visiting AMBIs website at www.AMBIinc.com. AMBI is also developing an internet commerce site through which its products can be ordered directly, www.CardiaNutrition.com, that is currently under construction. With respect to establishing proprietary positions for its products, AMBI has 11 issued patents, and an additional 11 patents pending. We believe the proprietary nature of AMBIs products is a key differentiating component to its strategy, and the investment case. Proprietary products should command higher prices, and larger margins, and therefore be less susceptible to the price competition that has negatively impacted the large nutritional company share prices over the past weeks. Additionally, AMBI is building a brand name, CardiaNutrition, which it intends to use on all of its products, that should become synonymous with high quality manufacturing and clinically proven effectiveness. Branding could provide additional pricing power and product differentiation and is another important competitive tactic for AMBIs products. With respect to its product pipeline, AMBI is actively pursuing a two-pronged strategy of internal development, and in-licensing or acquisition. Products in development internally include Arginine Silicate, a new ingredient product covered by a composition-of-matter patent, and Cardio Beverage and Diabetes Beverage, two beverages being developed as "physical delivery" systems for anti-hypertensive and anti-diabetic drugs. Both beverage products are being formulated with ingredients that enhance the activity of the drugs, and may result in improved compliance and reduced side effects, hence lowering healthcare costs. In addition to these programs, AMBI has an active in-licensing and acquisition program. We anticipate AMBI will complete acquisitions of additional products and/or businesses over the next six to 12 months. Biotechnology Assets: AMBI has some interesting biotechnology assets which are being managed prudently. The Company is developing nisin and lysostaphin as treatments for serious infection. AMBI is actively seeking corporate partners or buyers for these assets. In any event, continued commercialization of this technology is no longer a drain on the financial or managerial resources of the Company.
COMPANY STRATEGY AMBI is executing a nutritional products growth strategy with three components: "Retail Shelf," "Direct Response," and "Ingredient Sales." Retail Shelf involves the direct sale of AMBIs products through pharmacies, grocery stores, health food stores, mass merchandisers and specialty retailers. The recently announced strategic alliance with American Home Products provides the national retail distribution that AMBI sought for its Retail Shelf strategy. Direct Response includes sales through catalogs, infomercials and the internet. AMBI will launch an interactive website at www.CardiaNutrition.com that we encourage readers to visit. From AMBIs website, readers can sign up to receive copies of Hearts Content, as well as receive information on the Company and its products. Ingredient Sales are sales of its products in bulk form for private label products. AMBIs current Ingredient Sales customers include Rexall Sundown, General Nutrition Companies, Twinlabs and others. AMBIs recently announced distribution agreement with Cultor Food Science adds significant distribution power to this component of the Companys business. AMBI has an active corporate development program focused on identifying, in-licensing and acquiring new products and businesses that are complementary to its current operations and consistent with its corporate strategy. A successful example of this program was the August 1997 acquisition of Nutrition 21, a leader in the nutritional ingredient product development and marketing. Nutrition 21 has a strong intellectual property and product portfolio, which includes the chromium picolinate and selenium product lines. The structure and financing of the acquisition greatly limited dilution to existing shareholders, and the post-acquisition integration has been smooth. Investors should note that Nutrition 21 had pre-tax income of $6 million prior to the acquisition by AMBI, and $10 million pre-tax in the year since its acquisition, reflecting AMBIs ability to manage and grow a business post-acquisition. AMBI is actively seeking additional products and businesses to add to its current portfolio, and we anticipate additional announcements in this area as the Company moves forward.
NUTRITIONAL PRODUCTS INDUSTRY SUMMARY CHARACTERISTICS AND DYNAMICS The Nutritional Products industry is large, rapidly growing, and highly fragmented. Industry sources estimate the market to be over $10 billion in the US, and growing in excess of 15% per annum. Trends and demographics such as the aging population, increased focus on preventative health maintenance, acceptance of alternative health remedies, and heightened media attention to the sector, should benefit companies such as AMBI. And the industry is fragmented. There are several hundred small manufacturers and marketers of nutritional products offering a wide range or products, with very few firms generating revenues in excess of $100 million. We anticipate considerable consolidation in the industry over the next decade, and companies such as AMBI (with differentiated, proprietary branded products, and a strong, acquisitive management team) should see numerous opportunities to acquire brands, products and businesses, further propelling growth.
Industry regulation has long been an area of confusion and concern for both customers and investors. Questions have been raised as to the quality of manufacturing practices, and product claims, labeling and advertising. Congress enacted legislation called the Dietary Supplement Health and Education Act of 1994 ("DSHEA"). While these regulations are still being finalized and implemented, we believe that the net effect of DSHEA will be positive for the industry, and for high-quality manufacturing firms like AMBI. Positive implications of DSHEA: greater dissemination of information about the benefits of dietary supplements, provision of guidelines and procedures for product labeling, especially as it pertains to health-related claims and safety issues, and empowerment of the FDA to establish Good Manufacturing Practice (GMP) guidelines for dietary supplements. Concerns about DSHEA: added regulation adds costs, especially as it pertains to upgrading facilities to GMP level production, and additional labeling expense. However, quality manufacturers like AMBI, with proprietary products (which should command premium pricing), should be less vulnerable to margin pressure.
MANAGEMENT AMBI has assembled a strong management team, supplemented by an experienced Board of Directors and Science Advisory Board. The team has established its credibility by hitting milestones, achieving the financial turnaround, doing smart acquisitions and financings, and putting AMBI in a position to take advantage of a growing market with favorable demographic trends. We reiterate the successful acquisition of Nutrition 21, and post-acquisition integration and earnings growth, as indicative of the teams ability to execute and manage its growth strategy. Fredric D. Price, AMBIs President and CEO since September 1994, has more than 25 years experience in the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industries, in various senior management positions. From 1973 to 1986, he was at Pfizer Pharmaceuticals as a Vice President with both line and staff responsibilities. From 1986 to 1991, he ran his own consulting firm providing strategic planning, market development and new product introduction services to the pharmaceutical business, and from July 1991 to September 1994, he was Vice President and CFO of Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. AMBI has been building its senior management team, and has recently announced several key management additions. Gerald Shapiro former Managing Director of Corporate Finance at KPMG, joined as V.P.-Finance and Administration and CFO; Alan Gallantar, formerly with Bradley Pharmaceuticals, joined as Treasurer and Controller; and Steven Morvay, formerly President of Collier Newfield Publications who has had considerable branded and direct marketing experience, joined as the V.P.-Marketing and Sales.
FINANCIAL INFORMATION AND VALUATION DISCUSSION With the guidance of AMBI management, and based upon an analysis of comparable companies in the sector, we have generated five-year financial projections for AMBI (see below). We believe that the revenue projections are achievable, given the growth in current products, the Companys internal product development plans, the recently announced AHP strategic alliance, and the opportunities for acquisitions and in-licensing available to the Company. We believe our margin assumptions are also achievable, and can be compared to larger, more established companies that are currently manufacturing and marketing nutritional products and supplements. Gross margins are higher generally than that experienced by the comparable set, but we believe the AMBIs strategy of clinical-research supported proprietary products, and its branding strategy, should support higher margins more consistent with that of the pharmaceutical industry. Valuation: We have provided a variety of different valuation methodologies, including P/E multiples, revenue multiples, terminal P/E multiples, and terminal operating income multiples. We have run other valuation methodologies as well, including multiple analyses and a discounted cash flow model. Regardless of the valuation methodology, AMBIs share price appears undervalued at its current level. We believe current fair value to be in the range of $2 to $3 per share. Based upon the expected growth in net earnings and EBITDA, we believe an appropriate 12-18 month price target of $4 to $5 is achievable. Given the managements ability to make smart acquisitions, financed intelligently to minimize dilution, and its recently announced alliances with AHP and Cultor, we also believe AMBI could offer considerable upside valuation from these levels. "Why is it undervalued?" We believe there are a number of possible reasons, few of which have to do with AMBIs current business or prospects. First, the small-cap and micro-cap sector has been in a cyclical bear market (by anyones definition) for several months now. Companies with good businesses, management teams, strategies and prospects have been sold indiscriminately, and there are many like AMBI that have suffered from this sell-off. Second, AMBIs transition from a biotechnology company to a proprietary nutritional company has gone virtually unnoticed by investors, analysts and the Wall Street community. AMBI has limited investment research coverage and low institutional investment. As this changes, we believe AMBIs share price could move higher very quickly. Third, the nutritional products companies have sold off recently due to earnings disappointments and the announcements that companies have begun to cut prices. The announcement by one leading company in mid-August resulted in a sell-off throughout the entire sector. And last, a nutritional products company like AMBI doesnt fall "neatly" into the research universes of Wall Street analysts: its not biotech, its not pharmaceuticals, and its not really comparable to General Nutrition Companies, Inc. and Herbalife International Inc. which tend to be covered by "specialty retailing" analysts. Earnings Model and Valuation Analyses: click here
Note 1: Balance sheet for June 30, 1998, does not include $5.0 million received from AHP on October 8, 1998.
RISK CONSIDERATIONS This section of the document is provided to remind potential investors to undertake a prudent level of due diligence prior to making an investment in the securities of AMBI Inc. For a complete description of risks and uncertainties to AMBIs business, see the "Risk Factors" section in AMBIs Registration Statement and Prospectus dated May 12, 1998, which can be accessed directly from the SEC Edgar filings at www.SEC.gov on the internet. Other potential risks include:
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION Contact SmallCaps Online LLC 212-554-4158 For corporate inquiries: Jeffrey B. Davis For investor inquiries: Jennifer LaVin For media inquiries: Jeni Gray
SOURCES FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION The following are website addresses offering related information, and links to other sources of information. www.AMBIinc.com AMBIs corporate website www.CardiaNutrition.com AMBIs internet commerce site, currently under construction www.SmallCapsOnline.com SmallCaps Onlines site for company information and research www.FDA.gov US Food and Drug Administration homepage www.WHO.int World Health Organization homepage www.Diabetes.org American Diabetes Association homepage www.AmHrt.org American Heart Association National Center homepage www.AMA-Assn.org American Medical Association homepage www.ASH-US.org American Society of Hypertension homepage www.SEC.gov U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, with links to EDGAR filings 212-327-2038 Chromium Information Bureau, Inc.
The information in this report has been obtained from sources which we believe to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opionion expressed constitutes a solicitation by SmallCaps Online LLC for the purchase or sale of any securities. SmallCaps Online LLC has performed investment banking, consulting or other services for or may solicit investment banking, consulting or other business from, any company mentioned in this report. SmallCaps Online LLC or persons associated with SmallCaps Online LLC may at anytime be long or short any of the securities referred to herein and may make purchases or sales thereof while this report is in circulation or posted on the SmallCaps Online LLC website at www.SmallCapsOnline.com. This material, or any portion thereof, may not be reproduced without prior permission from SmallCaps Online LLC. SmallCaps Online LLC is not responsible for the contents of this document which is intended for electronic transmission and could be thus subjected to tampering or alteration. Copyright © 1998 by SmallCaps Online LLC. All rights reserved. |