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Cypress Bioscience, Inc. |
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Confidential |
Revenue assumptions for Prosorba for RA |
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(000 except per share amounts) |
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Historical |
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Current |
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Projections |
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Fiscal year end December 31st |
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1996 |
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1997 |
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1998 |
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1999 |
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2000 |
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2001 |
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2002 |
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2003 |
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PROSORBA for RA |
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Total US RA market (000s) - note 1 |
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2,400 |
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2,436 |
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2,473 |
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2,510 |
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2,547 |
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2,585 |
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Implied growth (yr/yr) |
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1.5% |
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1.5% |
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1.5% |
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1.5% |
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1.5% |
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Refractory patients (000s) - note 2 |
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74 |
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75 |
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76 |
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77 |
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79 |
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80 |
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Severe patients (000s) - note 2 |
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83 |
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84 |
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86 |
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87 |
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88 |
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89 |
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Total US target market of refractory and
severe patients |
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157 |
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159 |
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162 |
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164 |
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167 |
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169 |
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Penetration of PROSORBA for RA |
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Market share of refractory patients (%) |
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1.0% |
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5.0% |
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10.0% |
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15.0% |
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20.0% |
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Market share of severe patients (%) |
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0.5% |
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2.0% |
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4.0% |
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8.0% |
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12.0% |
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Number of refractory and severe patients
(000s) |
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1.2 |
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5.5 |
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11.2 |
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18.8 |
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26.7 |
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Number of columns ( in 000s, 12 columns/patient) |
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14.1 |
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66.3 |
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134.5 |
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225.9 |
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320.1 |
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Number of columns for re-treated patients
(10%) |
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1.4 |
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6.6 |
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13.5 |
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22.6 |
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32.0 |
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Total number of columns (000s) |
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15.5 |
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72.9 |
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148.0 |
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248.5 |
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352.1 |
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PROSORBA Pricing |
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Column price ($) |
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800 |
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700 |
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600 |
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550 |
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500 |
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Total PROSORBA for RA revenue in US ($ 000) |
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$12,380 |
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$51,023 |
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$88,781 |
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$136,696 |
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$176,045 |
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PROSORBA for ITP |
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Revenue ($ 000s) - Note 3 |
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$2,500 |
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$2,500 |
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$2,500 |
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$2,500 |
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$2,500 |
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Total PROSORBA |
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$14,880 |
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$53,523 |
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$91,281 |
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$139,196 |
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$178,545 |
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Notes: |
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1. Source: American College of Rheumatology |
2. Company estimates of target market; includes
DMARD refractory patients, and those patients believed to have failed
at least one DMARD drug, such as methotraxate |
3. Flat revenue assumptions: higher volume,
but at lower prices. |
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Cypress Bioscience, Inc. |
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Confidential |
Summary Income Statement |
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($ 000 except per share amounts) |
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Historical |
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Current |
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Projections |
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Fiscal year end December 31st |
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1996 |
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1997 |
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1998 |
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1999 |
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2000 |
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2001 |
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2002 |
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2003 |
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Revenues |
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PROSORBA for ITP |
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$1,968 |
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$3,358 |
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$2,500 |
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$2,500 |
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$2,500 |
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$2,500 |
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$2,500 |
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$2,500 |
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PROSORBA for RA |
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$0 |
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$0 |
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$0 |
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$12,380 |
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$51,023 |
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$88,781 |
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$136,696 |
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$176,045 |
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Cyplex Platelet Alternative |
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$0 |
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$0 |
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$0 |
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$0 |
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$0 |
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$0 |
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$0 |
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$3,000 |
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Total Revenues |
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$1,968 |
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$3,358 |
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$2,500 |
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$14,880 |
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$53,523 |
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$91,281 |
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$139,196 |
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$181,545 |
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Implied growth (yr/yr) |
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70.6% |
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-25.6% |
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495.2% |
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259.7% |
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70.5% |
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52.5% |
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30.4% |
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Cost of goods sold |
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$1,483 |
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$1,773 |
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$1,400 |
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$6,696 |
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$18,733 |
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$22,820 |
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$34,799 |
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$45,386 |
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Gross profit |
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$485 |
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$1,585 |
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$1,100 |
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$8,184 |
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$34,790 |
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$68,460 |
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$104,397 |
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$136,159 |
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Less SG&A expense |
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4,344 |
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4,242 |
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5,000 |
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8,928 |
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16,057 |
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22,820 |
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22,271 |
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23,601 |
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Less R&D expense |
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4,003 |
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6,707 |
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8,000 |
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9,672 |
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13,381 |
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16,431 |
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18,095 |
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18,155 |
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Less other operating expenses |
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5,824 |
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200 |
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200 |
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446 |
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1,606 |
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2,738 |
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4,176 |
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5,446 |
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Operating income |
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($13,686) |
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($9,564) |
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($12,100) |
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($10,862) |
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$3,747 |
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$26,471 |
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$59,854 |
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$88,957 |
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Implied growth (yr/yr) |
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-30.1% |
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26.5% |
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-10.2% |
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-134.5% |
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606.5% |
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126.1% |
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48.6% |
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Plus non-operating income (net) |
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401 |
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401 |
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350 |
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250 |
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250 |
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500 |
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500 |
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500 |
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Less taxes |
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0 |
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0 |
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0 |
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0 |
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0 |
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0 |
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0 |
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13,419 |
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Net income |
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($13,285) |
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($9,163) |
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($11,750) |
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($10,612) |
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$3,997 |
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$26,971 |
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$60,354 |
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$76,039 |
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Implied growth (yr/yr) |
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-31.0% |
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28.2% |
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-9.7% |
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-137.7% |
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574.9% |
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123.8% |
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26.0% |
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Weighted average shares outstanding |
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29,206 |
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35,237 |
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41,500 |
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46,000 |
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49,000 |
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52,000 |
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55,000 |
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60,000 |
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Earnings per share (EPS) |
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(0.45) |
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(0.26) |
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(0.28) |
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(0.23) |
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0.08 |
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0.52 |
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1.10 |
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1.27 |
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CYPB Margins: |
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Gross margin |
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24.6% |
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47.2% |
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44.0% |
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55.0% |
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65.0% |
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75.0% |
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75.0% |
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75.0% |
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SG&A as a % of revenues |
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220.7% |
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126.3% |
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200.0% |
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60.0% |
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30.0% |
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25.0% |
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16.0% |
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13.0% |
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R&D as a % of revenues |
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203.4% |
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199.7% |
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320.0% |
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65.0% |
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25.0% |
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18.0% |
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13.0% |
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10.0% |
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Other operating expenses as a % of revenues |
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295.9% |
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6.0% |
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8.0% |
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3.0% |
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3.0% |
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3.0% |
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3.0% |
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3.0% |
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Operating margin |
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-695.4% |
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-284.8% |
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-484.0% |
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-73.0% |
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7.0% |
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29.0% |
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43.0% |
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49.0% |
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Pre-tax margin |
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-715.8% |
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-296.8% |
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-498.0% |
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-74.7% |
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6.5% |
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28.5% |
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42.6% |
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48.7% |
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Net margin |
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-675.1% |
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-272.9% |
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-470.0% |
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-71.3% |
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7.5% |
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29.5% |
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43.4% |
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41.9% |
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Tax rate |
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0.0% |
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0.0% |
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0.0% |
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0.0% |
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0.0% |
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0.0% |
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0.0% |
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15.0% |
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Cypress Bioscience, Inc. |
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Confidential |
Valuation Analyses |
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($ 000s except per share amounts) |
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|
|
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|
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|
Past |
|
Current |
|
Projections |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1997 |
|
1998 |
|
1999 |
|
2000 |
|
2001 |
|
2002 |
|
2003 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Revenues |
|
|
|
|
3,358 |
|
2,500 |
|
14,880 |
|
53,523 |
|
91,281 |
|
139,196 |
|
181,545 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Operating Income |
|
|
|
|
(9,564) |
|
(12,100) |
|
(10,862) |
|
3,747 |
|
26,471 |
|
59,854 |
|
88,957 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Net Income |
|
|
|
|
(9,163) |
|
(11,750) |
|
(10,612) |
|
3,997 |
|
26,971 |
|
60,354 |
|
76,039 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Earnings Per Share |
|
|
|
|
(0.26) |
|
(0.28) |
|
(0.23) |
|
0.08 |
|
0.52 |
|
1.10 |
|
1.27 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Shares outstanding |
|
|
|
|
35,237 |
|
41,500 |
|
46,000 |
|
49,000 |
|
52,000 |
|
55,000 |
|
60,000 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Terminal P/E Multiple Method |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Discount Rate |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
30% |
|
32% |
|
34% |
|
36% |
|
38% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
20.00 |
|
409,589 |
|
379,485 |
|
351,998 |
|
326,866 |
|
303,857 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
22.50 |
|
460,787 |
|
426,921 |
|
395,998 |
|
367,724 |
|
341,839 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Terminal P/E multiple: |
|
|
25.00 |
|
511,986 |
|
474,357 |
|
439,998 |
|
408,583 |
|
379,821 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
27.50 |
|
563,184 |
|
521,792 |
|
483,998 |
|
449,441 |
|
417,803 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
30.00 |
|
614,383 |
|
569,228 |
|
527,997 |
|
490,299 |
|
455,785 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Average of shaded area= |
|
|
|
|
|
440,979 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Per share average of shaded area= |
|
|
|
|
|
$10.63 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Terminal Operating Income Multiple Method
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Discount Rate |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
30% |
|
32% |
|
34% |
|
36% |
|
38% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12.00 |
|
287,505 |
|
266,375 |
|
247,081 |
|
229,439 |
|
213,288 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
14.00 |
|
335,423 |
|
310,771 |
|
288,261 |
|
267,679 |
|
248,836 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Terminal operating income multiple: |
|
|
16.00 |
|
383,340 |
|
355,166 |
|
329,441 |
|
305,919 |
|
284,385 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
18.00 |
|
431,258 |
|
399,562 |
|
370,621 |
|
344,159 |
|
319,933 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
20.00 |
|
479,176 |
|
443,958 |
|
411,801 |
|
382,399 |
|
355,481 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Average of shaded area= |
|
|
|
|
|
330,175 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Per share average of shaded area= |
|
|
|
|
|
$7.96 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|